* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/16/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 66 65 64 63 61 61 61 59 57 56 57 56 56 52 48 V (KT) LAND 65 67 66 65 64 63 61 61 61 59 57 56 57 56 56 52 48 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 68 67 66 65 64 63 62 59 57 54 53 52 51 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 18 16 14 15 19 18 16 23 22 28 31 41 51 50 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -4 -5 -1 -3 0 0 -4 0 1 0 0 -3 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 281 279 295 311 324 318 308 292 283 269 261 246 242 239 243 251 252 SST (C) 27.2 27.6 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.4 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 141 139 142 143 138 143 144 142 145 147 144 144 143 142 140 137 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.3 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -54.2 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 48 47 43 45 48 50 51 54 54 56 55 56 58 60 57 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 19 17 17 18 18 19 20 19 18 16 15 14 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 57 59 44 50 59 42 57 77 69 59 56 46 50 57 57 50 47 200 MB DIV 17 2 -11 -10 1 8 -5 -8 12 -11 9 16 45 58 18 31 19 700-850 TADV 9 4 8 3 3 0 1 -6 0 -3 3 3 1 -5 -5 -7 -4 LAND (KM) 69 100 169 223 236 355 538 733 888 1030 1164 1274 1350 1402 1429 1436 1455 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.9 19.5 19.6 19.7 19.8 19.9 19.9 20.1 20.6 21.4 22.2 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 155.7 156.8 157.9 159.3 160.6 162.9 165.0 167.0 168.6 170.1 171.5 172.6 173.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 13 12 10 9 8 7 8 7 7 5 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 14 10 20 19 13 26 25 19 28 26 24 25 16 19 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -9. -9. -13. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.3 155.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/16/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.38 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.52 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 526.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.31 -2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.15 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.97 1.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -55.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.53 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.8% 23.9% 22.9% 20.8% 15.1% 22.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 2.7% 1.1% 0.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 8.9% 8.0% 7.2% 5.4% 7.6% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.5% 4.9% 4.5% 4.1% 3.2% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/16/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##