* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/15/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 65 63 61 59 57 57 57 57 57 56 57 57 58 57 53 V (KT) LAND 65 66 65 63 61 59 57 57 57 57 57 56 57 57 58 57 53 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 67 65 64 62 60 59 59 58 57 56 57 58 59 60 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 18 19 18 13 16 18 17 18 20 25 29 38 46 54 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -2 -2 -1 1 -3 1 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 -3 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 293 282 284 305 322 329 300 280 280 266 258 235 242 235 247 245 257 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.3 27.8 28.0 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 139 138 142 142 137 143 144 141 145 146 144 144 142 142 137 135 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -50.8 -51.0 -51.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 51 47 45 41 43 47 48 48 51 52 55 53 54 57 60 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 18 17 18 17 18 19 18 18 17 16 16 17 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 57 58 56 39 45 46 42 59 58 49 46 37 33 42 39 38 19 200 MB DIV -7 7 -12 -8 -13 0 -4 -3 6 -10 1 16 24 61 28 40 36 700-850 TADV 7 13 4 2 1 -1 0 -6 -4 -1 -2 2 0 -3 0 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 133 48 112 187 200 286 484 697 864 1022 1161 1285 1368 1444 1524 1561 1586 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.6 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.4 20.7 21.1 21.8 22.7 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 155.0 156.0 157.0 158.5 160.0 162.4 164.7 166.8 168.5 170.1 171.5 172.7 173.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 15 13 11 11 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 7 16 19 11 25 25 19 29 24 24 17 18 14 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -8. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.9 155.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/15/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.37 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.45 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 542.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.29 -1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.13 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.13 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -50.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.47 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 22.0% 19.8% 17.7% 14.2% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 7.5% 6.7% 5.9% 4.8% 7.0% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.9% 4.2% 3.3% 2.9% 2.4% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/15/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##