* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/15/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 53 52 51 50 51 52 53 53 53 52 53 53 54 55 58 V (KT) LAND 55 55 53 52 51 50 51 52 53 53 53 52 53 53 54 55 58 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 52 51 50 51 52 54 55 55 54 53 53 55 60 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 16 17 18 14 17 17 20 17 25 23 27 31 32 36 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -3 -4 -3 -4 -1 -4 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 291 291 283 275 289 317 309 305 296 264 261 254 245 238 235 222 216 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.3 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.1 27.6 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 137 138 140 141 137 143 144 143 147 144 144 142 143 139 136 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -50.4 -50.5 -50.9 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 50 50 46 45 42 42 45 46 49 51 55 57 57 56 57 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 20 19 18 17 18 18 18 18 18 16 14 13 14 16 21 850 MB ENV VOR 63 60 57 60 47 46 52 48 54 52 56 50 40 37 40 58 56 200 MB DIV 6 -1 12 9 -9 -36 -9 12 -13 8 -11 18 28 43 56 70 46 700-850 TADV 6 8 7 7 6 -1 0 0 -6 -1 -3 1 0 1 0 0 8 LAND (KM) 195 102 19 112 166 155 345 574 775 948 1089 1222 1344 1428 1482 1567 1684 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.6 20.8 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.7 22.4 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 154.1 155.0 155.8 157.0 158.2 161.0 163.4 165.7 167.7 169.4 170.8 172.1 173.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 11 12 13 12 11 10 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 7 7 15 16 12 24 22 25 27 22 21 17 19 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -6. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -9. -9. -7. -5. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.8 154.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/15/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.44 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.48 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 451.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.40 -2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.09 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.7 60.4 to 0.0 0.97 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -50.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.47 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 21.4% 18.2% 15.7% 12.3% 20.0% 14.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 7.4% 6.2% 5.3% 4.1% 6.7% 5.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.7% 4.7% 3.6% 3.1% 2.5% 3.3% 2.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/15/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##