* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/15/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 55 55 54 55 57 60 63 63 70 72 76 81 87 91 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 55 55 54 55 57 60 63 63 70 72 76 81 87 91 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 56 55 54 54 57 60 63 66 69 73 77 81 87 96 104 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 11 12 16 14 7 13 12 14 16 16 16 11 9 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -1 -3 0 0 5 3 7 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 277 286 280 272 264 304 322 300 286 281 256 249 235 219 224 204 240 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.6 27.7 27.4 27.8 28.1 27.8 28.4 28.0 28.2 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 137 137 142 142 139 143 145 142 148 144 145 143 143 142 142 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.7 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -51.0 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.5 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 46 50 52 48 46 42 43 44 46 48 48 51 52 54 52 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 24 21 21 20 20 21 22 24 22 26 25 27 29 33 37 850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 62 65 66 47 50 48 49 56 50 59 56 52 47 53 63 200 MB DIV 21 9 -1 10 27 -8 -31 -16 -10 -17 9 3 29 35 49 49 32 700-850 TADV 2 3 7 4 7 0 0 3 -4 -3 1 7 8 8 5 5 11 LAND (KM) 282 211 146 25 93 168 246 485 696 888 1080 1243 1399 1528 1627 1677 1691 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.7 19.3 20.3 20.7 20.8 20.9 21.1 21.6 22.3 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 153.0 153.8 154.5 155.7 156.8 159.9 162.3 164.8 166.9 168.8 170.7 172.3 173.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 10 12 14 13 12 11 9 9 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 16 9 9 8 11 19 10 24 26 19 28 23 26 14 14 15 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. -2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 0. 0. -1. -0. 2. 5. 8. 8. 15. 17. 21. 26. 32. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.6 153.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/15/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.45 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.54 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 437.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.41 -2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.11 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.93 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -47.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.42 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 27.9% 21.2% 17.8% 14.1% 22.7% 16.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 10.1% 7.3% 6.1% 4.8% 7.7% 5.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 6.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.3% 7.5% 4.6% 3.5% 2.9% 3.8% 2.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/15/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##