* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/15/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 58 55 52 54 58 60 63 65 70 72 75 78 83 85 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 58 55 52 54 58 60 63 65 70 72 75 78 83 85 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 57 57 54 55 59 64 69 71 76 81 84 89 96 99 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 11 11 12 12 9 10 13 15 18 16 15 13 10 16 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -5 -2 -8 -4 -6 -2 0 -1 0 6 6 SHEAR DIR 293 302 293 270 277 282 310 303 301 274 251 243 214 228 244 262 249 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.3 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 137 136 138 141 141 137 145 144 145 145 144 144 143 143 143 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 45 46 47 46 48 44 42 44 45 46 48 48 48 48 48 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 23 19 16 17 18 19 20 20 22 23 24 24 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR 61 66 65 60 60 45 34 32 39 38 41 42 35 26 8 16 23 200 MB DIV 0 -4 8 11 14 -13 -18 -8 7 2 9 -10 6 -15 8 -4 17 700-850 TADV 9 2 5 11 7 4 0 -1 1 -6 1 -2 1 5 6 3 3 LAND (KM) 383 271 176 84 28 171 212 359 594 805 977 1150 1337 1465 1535 1609 1695 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.8 20.3 20.7 20.9 21.2 21.6 22.2 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 151.9 153.1 154.3 155.2 156.0 158.5 161.5 163.5 165.9 168.0 169.7 171.4 173.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 9 11 13 12 10 11 9 8 9 8 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 10 8 9 17 12 12 26 20 27 20 26 18 16 18 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. -0. -3. -1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 15. 17. 20. 23. 28. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.4 151.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/15/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.45 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.55 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 451.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.40 -2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.11 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.85 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -51.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.48 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 24.4% 20.7% 17.3% 13.7% 22.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.4% 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 9.0% 7.2% 6.0% 4.7% 7.6% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 6.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.3% 8.5% 5.1% 4.0% 3.3% 4.3% 0.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/15/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##