* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/14/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 49 48 45 44 46 51 53 55 60 65 69 73 76 79 V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 49 48 45 44 46 51 53 55 60 65 69 73 76 79 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 49 48 46 45 46 50 55 60 66 73 79 84 88 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 12 13 18 12 11 5 9 13 16 16 10 7 11 19 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 1 -1 0 -4 -3 -4 -9 -5 -5 -2 1 3 9 2 SHEAR DIR 281 283 286 278 268 262 290 267 285 269 272 251 270 257 297 283 317 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.4 27.8 28.1 27.9 28.2 28.0 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 136 137 140 142 139 143 144 142 147 144 144 143 144 142 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.5 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 -51.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 8 7 8 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 48 47 48 48 50 48 44 45 44 42 46 46 45 44 49 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 22 22 18 15 15 17 17 18 20 21 22 23 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 68 60 67 57 59 59 40 36 38 42 39 42 28 17 8 3 35 200 MB DIV -10 -3 -1 7 9 0 -11 -41 -2 0 2 -1 -12 -20 -16 6 2 700-850 TADV 4 8 0 2 7 6 -3 -1 2 -2 0 1 0 0 3 -1 -6 LAND (KM) 550 406 266 179 97 109 181 220 486 669 791 985 1287 1425 1429 1494 1686 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.4 20.2 20.7 21.2 21.4 21.5 22.0 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 150.3 151.6 152.9 153.7 154.5 157.0 159.8 162.0 164.9 166.7 167.9 169.8 172.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 8 11 13 12 12 11 7 8 12 10 4 3 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 14 8 8 8 19 10 23 24 19 24 22 22 20 18 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -4. -8. -9. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -4. 1. 3. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.0 150.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/14/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.49 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.51 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 394.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.46 -2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.92 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -47.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.42 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 19.2% 16.3% 14.1% 10.9% 19.7% 16.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 6.9% 5.6% 4.8% 3.7% 6.6% 5.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.7% 6.9% 3.8% 2.9% 2.3% 3.8% 3.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/14/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##