* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/14/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 51 51 49 47 51 55 59 62 68 72 76 81 86 89 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 51 51 49 47 51 55 59 62 68 72 76 81 86 89 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 52 53 53 51 48 49 52 56 61 68 75 80 85 89 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 13 11 11 10 14 3 8 10 12 12 13 4 13 17 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 0 0 0 -3 -4 -3 -6 -1 -4 -1 3 5 12 7 SHEAR DIR 264 285 280 283 263 254 262 325 241 284 263 252 292 259 299 305 296 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.6 27.7 27.3 27.9 27.9 28.1 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 140 139 137 142 142 138 143 143 145 143 144 143 143 143 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.8 -50.5 -50.6 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 48 48 50 51 53 50 45 43 44 43 43 45 44 45 46 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 23 23 21 17 18 19 20 21 23 25 26 27 28 30 850 MB ENV VOR 65 64 56 57 56 59 51 35 40 42 52 54 57 52 36 26 35 200 MB DIV 10 -10 4 -1 19 19 0 -32 -3 -1 -14 11 -5 -18 -1 3 -5 700-850 TADV 0 3 6 0 2 7 4 0 1 3 -4 0 1 2 4 5 2 LAND (KM) 697 572 448 340 236 44 165 170 332 558 771 975 1163 1333 1462 1572 1653 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.7 19.7 20.4 20.9 21.2 21.5 22.1 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 149.0 150.2 151.3 152.3 153.3 155.3 158.1 160.9 163.3 165.6 167.7 169.7 171.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 10 12 14 13 11 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 11 11 16 11 7 15 17 12 24 20 23 18 21 19 19 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. 1. 5. 9. 12. 18. 22. 26. 31. 36. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.5 149.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/14/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.50 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.57 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 380.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.48 -3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.11 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.95 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -39.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.31 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 19.2% 17.2% 15.1% 11.9% 20.6% 16.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 6.8% 5.8% 5.1% 4.0% 6.9% 5.8% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.8% 7.4% 4.4% 3.5% 3.0% 4.4% 3.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/14/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##