* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/14/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 54 55 54 53 50 54 58 61 65 67 74 78 87 91 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 54 55 54 53 50 54 58 61 65 67 74 78 87 91 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 56 57 56 53 50 51 54 58 62 67 74 80 88 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 13 11 12 11 11 7 2 6 13 15 16 4 6 7 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 0 -2 0 -2 -6 -3 -6 1 2 10 0 SHEAR DIR 248 265 284 283 279 249 250 273 144 270 265 260 256 246 197 263 237 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.5 27.4 28.0 27.7 27.9 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 139 139 140 136 139 141 140 139 145 141 143 142 145 144 143 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.6 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 49 48 48 49 50 51 48 43 44 44 43 47 47 50 49 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 21 22 24 23 21 17 19 20 21 23 23 26 25 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 74 68 61 59 63 59 64 48 48 48 48 58 69 71 63 51 55 200 MB DIV 27 16 -6 8 -1 19 24 -7 -28 0 -18 -11 20 13 17 12 18 700-850 TADV -3 0 2 6 0 8 10 0 1 2 -2 -1 4 1 2 2 -1 LAND (KM) 816 704 592 452 314 152 46 189 210 396 635 862 1048 1257 1471 1645 1773 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.2 19.1 20.1 20.5 21.1 21.8 22.3 22.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 147.9 148.9 149.9 151.2 152.4 154.2 156.3 159.4 161.7 164.0 166.4 168.6 170.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 13 10 10 13 13 12 11 11 9 9 10 10 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 10 11 15 8 14 18 10 15 24 17 18 17 18 16 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 4. 3. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. 4. 8. 11. 15. 17. 24. 28. 37. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.2 147.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/14/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.49 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.65 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 397.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.46 -3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.10 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.98 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -31.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.21 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 22.6% 20.5% 17.6% 14.1% 24.8% 18.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 1.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 8.4% 7.1% 6.1% 4.8% 8.4% 6.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.3% 7.7% 5.5% 4.5% 3.4% 5.7% 4.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/14/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##