* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/14/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 52 52 53 52 52 51 54 56 61 65 68 72 78 83 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 52 52 53 52 52 51 54 56 61 65 68 72 78 83 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 54 55 56 54 51 49 50 53 58 63 68 72 78 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 8 9 10 15 10 13 6 4 8 14 13 15 13 11 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 -1 -4 0 -3 -2 -8 -6 -4 -4 -2 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 78 228 273 286 281 274 266 252 282 256 262 261 260 260 236 245 194 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.4 27.5 28.0 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 139 139 141 137 139 141 139 140 144 142 142 143 145 145 141 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -51.1 -51.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 52 46 44 43 46 46 43 42 40 39 38 43 44 45 47 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 19 21 20 21 18 16 14 15 15 17 18 19 20 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 85 81 75 73 68 64 58 51 37 42 35 45 42 44 37 32 27 200 MB DIV 42 19 -11 -8 -13 7 9 -4 1 -25 -5 -10 11 -2 16 -9 -7 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -2 5 5 1 4 7 1 0 3 -2 1 1 1 5 0 LAND (KM) 912 771 629 499 370 158 67 190 210 425 646 862 1103 1304 1484 1675 1900 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.6 18.2 19.0 19.8 20.6 21.2 21.7 22.3 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 147.0 148.3 149.5 150.7 151.9 154.1 156.5 159.0 161.8 164.3 166.5 168.6 170.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 12 12 11 11 12 13 13 11 10 11 10 9 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 10 10 13 8 14 18 11 19 24 17 16 16 18 15 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 9. 10. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -3. -6. -10. -9. -8. -6. -3. -2. -2. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 9. 11. 16. 20. 23. 27. 33. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.0 147.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/14/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.54 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.73 5.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 363.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.50 -3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.10 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.92 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -33.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.24 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 23.4% 20.7% 17.4% 13.8% 23.6% 21.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.7% 1.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 9.5% 7.6% 6.2% 4.7% 8.1% 7.8% 0.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 5.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.7% 9.2% 6.3% 4.6% 3.3% 6.0% 6.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/14/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##