* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/13/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 43 45 47 50 50 44 48 54 58 62 65 68 70 74 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 43 45 47 50 50 44 48 54 58 62 65 68 70 74 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 45 46 48 49 46 42 42 45 49 54 58 62 65 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 3 4 6 8 9 14 11 11 4 9 12 13 18 19 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 -4 -3 -3 -3 -5 -6 -6 -1 1 3 SHEAR DIR 13 70 188 240 268 272 267 255 276 263 237 235 264 269 262 258 292 SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.5 27.4 27.7 27.1 27.5 27.8 27.3 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 138 140 139 142 135 140 143 138 144 142 143 141 144 145 144 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.2 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 60 58 52 50 49 48 50 46 44 43 41 40 41 42 45 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 18 17 18 18 19 16 10 10 13 13 15 15 16 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 83 84 78 63 65 60 54 50 38 25 28 31 33 35 32 26 18 200 MB DIV 59 49 35 3 -10 -14 17 7 -12 -13 -33 -15 6 0 7 17 0 700-850 TADV 4 3 -2 -4 0 -1 4 7 4 -4 1 -5 0 1 -1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1077 954 832 699 567 304 124 163 232 317 539 790 1081 1280 1419 1598 1841 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.5 18.0 18.9 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.8 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 145.7 146.8 147.9 149.1 150.3 152.8 155.0 157.4 160.3 162.9 165.4 167.9 170.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 13 12 11 13 13 13 12 13 12 8 7 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 10 8 10 10 17 8 14 19 12 25 19 16 17 21 16 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 15. 15. 16. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -6. -15. -14. -10. -9. -7. -6. -4. -4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.2 145.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/13/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.59 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.69 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 263.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 -3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.11 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.94 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -56.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.55 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 20.6% 17.5% 14.9% 11.5% 21.1% 18.5% 16.2% Logistic: 6.1% 17.2% 6.3% 5.0% 1.3% 1.9% 1.3% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 12.8% 7.9% 6.7% 4.3% 7.7% 6.6% 5.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.3% 8.9% 4.9% 3.8% 2.6% 4.8% 4.8% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/13/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##