* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE CP012026 08/13/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 38 40 45 49 48 49 52 55 59 63 66 71 76 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 38 40 45 49 48 49 52 55 59 63 66 71 76 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 36 37 39 38 37 38 40 44 48 53 58 64 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 4 3 8 10 14 8 8 2 6 5 8 7 4 1 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 -3 -3 -2 -4 -5 -1 -2 -3 -6 -8 -6 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 357 22 28 206 242 279 285 285 254 227 174 184 246 293 298 208 291 SST (C) 28.3 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.3 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.1 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 139 138 139 141 137 140 143 138 142 142 142 143 145 144 141 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.1 -50.7 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 61 57 50 48 46 44 40 38 35 37 36 32 31 35 43 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 19 19 19 18 20 18 15 13 13 14 14 15 16 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR 88 94 98 94 82 70 71 60 43 45 40 36 21 13 15 31 23 200 MB DIV 55 61 63 34 5 -9 7 6 2 -3 -16 0 -4 6 -6 4 -4 700-850 TADV -1 3 4 0 -1 5 0 3 2 0 -5 2 -5 -2 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1159 1038 917 785 653 377 137 99 205 259 514 790 1085 1328 1520 1688 1856 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.5 18.2 19.0 20.0 20.8 21.4 22.2 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 145.0 146.0 147.0 148.2 149.3 151.9 154.5 156.8 159.7 162.5 165.2 167.9 170.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 13 12 13 14 14 13 14 13 10 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 24 17 7 8 10 13 8 14 19 11 22 19 15 14 19 16 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. 19. 20. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -7. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 10. 14. 13. 14. 17. 20. 24. 28. 31. 36. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.9 145.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 ONE 08/13/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.64 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.66 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.38 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 1.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.13 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.5 60.4 to 0.0 0.91 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -39.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.32 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 18.5% 15.5% 12.9% 10.0% 17.9% 15.7% 14.1% Logistic: 1.0% 5.0% 1.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 7.9% 5.7% 4.6% 3.4% 6.1% 5.4% 4.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.0% 5.9% 3.3% 2.3% 1.7% 3.5% 4.2% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 ONE 08/13/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##