* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE CP012026 08/13/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 39 42 46 48 41 44 49 53 56 60 64 67 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 39 42 41 48 41 44 49 52 55 59 64 66 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 36 38 40 38 35 35 39 42 45 48 53 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 7 3 4 9 12 14 10 6 3 5 8 3 6 8 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 -1 -4 -2 -2 0 -5 -2 -1 0 -2 -6 -6 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 326 347 20 86 196 271 272 266 252 263 177 154 155 218 225 244 237 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.1 27.5 27.4 27.0 27.6 27.4 27.6 28.0 27.9 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 143 140 138 138 139 136 141 139 135 141 139 141 144 141 137 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -50.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -51.2 -51.7 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 64 64 62 57 50 43 46 41 41 40 37 38 37 36 35 43 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 19 19 19 18 18 19 18 11 11 13 13 13 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 87 88 91 99 98 82 79 61 51 38 35 35 17 12 3 12 14 200 MB DIV 54 65 72 62 32 -4 -9 8 3 0 -16 -17 -9 2 9 13 31 700-850 TADV -3 -1 4 3 -4 1 4 4 6 0 -2 -2 -3 -6 1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1255 1149 1042 910 778 490 213 -4 168 158 367 650 949 1235 1500 1664 1742 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.6 18.3 19.0 19.8 20.7 21.7 22.6 23.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 144.1 145.0 145.9 147.0 148.1 150.6 153.2 155.7 158.4 161.2 163.8 166.5 169.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 12 14 13 13 13 14 12 10 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 19 16 9 8 9 10 3 16 12 12 19 9 13 18 11 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 18. 18. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -12. -12. -9. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 13. 6. 9. 14. 18. 21. 25. 29. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.7 144.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 ONE 08/13/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.66 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.68 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.16 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.7 60.4 to 0.0 0.92 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -16.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.01 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 20.1% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 19.8% 17.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 7.3% 6.0% 0.1% 0.0% 6.7% 5.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.0% 5.6% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 3.9% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 ONE 08/13/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##