* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE CP012026 08/13/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 35 37 39 39 41 44 43 40 41 45 49 51 56 62 64 V (KT) LAND 35 36 35 37 39 39 41 44 42 39 40 44 48 51 56 61 63 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 37 38 39 40 41 35 37 36 38 41 45 49 57 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 10 6 4 11 9 16 14 11 8 7 8 6 5 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 0 -1 -6 -2 0 -1 -4 -3 -2 -5 -6 -6 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 297 319 351 15 151 258 281 254 233 255 230 209 190 247 227 235 240 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 146 144 144 140 138 139 140 141 140 139 139 137 138 138 136 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -50.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 63 62 64 62 59 48 49 45 43 41 40 38 38 38 37 43 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 20 21 20 19 20 18 13 13 14 14 14 15 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 90 88 84 92 95 79 72 66 50 38 31 34 13 16 -1 13 18 200 MB DIV 85 52 54 89 79 6 6 24 4 11 2 -30 0 -18 24 11 24 700-850 TADV 3 -3 0 4 0 0 1 0 4 4 0 -6 0 -6 -2 1 0 LAND (KM) 1352 1277 1202 1096 991 722 453 171 10 136 146 430 739 990 1209 1398 1589 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.7 16.2 17.2 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.2 21.2 22.2 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 143.1 143.8 144.4 145.3 146.1 148.4 150.8 153.4 156.0 158.7 161.5 164.4 167.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 10 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 11 10 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 21 16 11 12 9 9 0 17 10 17 14 10 13 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 14. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. 19. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -4. -10. -10. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 6. 10. 14. 16. 21. 27. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.7 143.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 ONE 08/13/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.68 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.63 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.72 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -14.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.4% 18.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 8.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 7.2% 6.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0.6% 6.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 4.1% 4.1% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 ONE 08/13/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##