* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE CP012026 08/12/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 43 49 52 56 58 57 55 57 61 65 70 75 78 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 43 49 52 56 58 55 53 56 60 63 68 73 77 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 40 41 44 48 51 52 49 49 50 55 60 66 72 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 7 10 9 2 9 11 14 14 10 7 5 5 6 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 0 0 -1 -2 0 -1 0 -4 0 -5 -4 -2 -6 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 261 304 320 356 9 177 271 258 259 257 234 176 188 183 140 225 257 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.1 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 144 145 142 136 139 138 139 140 138 140 139 137 139 136 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.3 -50.6 -51.1 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -50.7 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 64 62 61 60 57 49 44 45 43 42 41 39 42 41 40 40 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 20 21 22 22 22 23 21 18 18 19 20 21 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR 105 93 92 89 86 99 83 85 65 54 38 35 38 23 14 10 16 200 MB DIV 102 87 76 58 81 45 1 -1 10 -9 3 -16 -14 -8 3 8 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 0 1 5 3 9 6 4 0 -2 -3 -4 0 0 LAND (KM) 1440 1373 1304 1218 1132 868 585 328 83 90 142 215 492 783 1072 1270 1380 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.5 15.9 17.0 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.7 20.6 21.5 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 142.2 142.8 143.4 144.1 144.8 147.0 149.5 151.9 154.3 156.9 159.6 162.3 165.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 10 13 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 23 21 19 11 8 11 8 13 17 9 19 15 11 14 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 18. 19. 20. 19. 19. 20. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 17. 21. 23. 22. 20. 22. 26. 30. 35. 40. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.7 142.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 ONE 08/12/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.68 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.69 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.56 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.54 0.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -31.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.21 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 22.5% 19.2% 14.8% 12.0% 21.2% 18.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 6.6% 3.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 9.8% 7.4% 5.4% 4.1% 7.2% 6.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 12.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 5.0% 7.0% SDCON: 2.9% 10.9% 6.2% 3.7% 2.5% 6.1% 5.5% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 ONE 08/12/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##