* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912024 09/23/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 36 38 40 43 43 44 46 48 51 52 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 36 38 40 43 43 44 46 48 51 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 28 27 25 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 10 9 11 17 23 22 17 15 13 18 15 14 12 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 4 1 -1 -4 -3 -6 -8 -6 -1 -1 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 67 60 74 75 67 87 77 77 66 43 28 15 13 4 346 321 284 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.3 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 146 146 145 144 145 148 148 144 145 145 146 145 148 149 150 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 65 61 58 57 58 58 62 57 57 55 57 56 56 54 51 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 4 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 22 15 7 4 11 22 17 17 17 25 10 0 -4 -10 -12 -14 200 MB DIV 14 7 -20 -40 -39 -32 6 37 19 -6 13 16 -8 -2 -11 0 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 1 -1 0 0 -5 -3 -3 -1 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1578 1511 1430 1338 1240 1015 815 689 639 664 763 904 1079 1165 1299 1453 1626 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.5 14.0 14.0 13.4 13.0 12.8 12.7 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 142.4 143.0 143.7 144.6 145.5 147.6 149.7 151.7 154.0 156.5 158.9 161.2 163.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 13 12 12 11 10 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 11 9 9 9 14 29 22 28 16 20 14 11 12 74 59 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. 42. 43. 45. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 15. 18. 18. 20. 21. 23. 26. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 142.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP912024 INVEST 09/23/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.75 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.72 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.09 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.97 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.9% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.0% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912024 INVEST 09/23/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##