* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912024 09/23/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 30 34 37 38 39 42 45 46 47 48 50 53 53 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 30 34 37 38 39 42 45 46 47 48 50 53 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 29 29 27 27 28 29 31 33 36 40 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 6 10 10 13 15 24 15 14 12 10 13 8 7 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -2 -4 0 2 1 0 -3 -3 -8 -6 -3 -1 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 89 87 73 75 91 85 96 81 86 50 20 354 8 360 343 331 298 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 145 146 146 145 143 146 144 145 143 143 144 145 145 145 148 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 65 65 61 58 57 58 59 59 58 56 56 57 55 56 54 46 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 22 23 22 17 12 14 22 21 29 18 20 23 14 1 -3 -6 -12 200 MB DIV 26 27 16 -2 -21 -31 0 21 23 17 -22 4 10 1 -23 -16 -20 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 2 1 4 4 -1 -2 2 -1 -3 -1 -1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1615 1551 1485 1395 1312 1094 874 700 611 605 659 762 889 1013 1116 1220 1336 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.5 13.2 14.0 14.4 14.1 13.5 13.2 13.0 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 142.2 142.7 143.3 144.1 144.9 146.9 148.9 150.9 152.9 155.1 157.3 159.3 161.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 9 11 10 10 10 11 10 9 9 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 14 10 9 9 10 27 26 20 27 13 17 14 12 11 13 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 32. 35. 37. 39. 40. 41. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 13. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. 25. 28. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 142.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP912024 INVEST 09/23/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.75 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.69 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.0% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.1% 14.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.4% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 5.4% 4.9% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0% 4.2% 2.7% 0% 0% 2.7% 2.4% .6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912024 INVEST 09/23/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##