* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912024 09/23/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 36 42 46 47 49 51 54 56 57 58 59 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 36 42 46 47 49 51 54 56 57 58 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 33 33 33 36 40 43 46 48 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 11 13 10 16 21 22 14 16 10 13 12 10 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -1 -4 -6 -7 -3 0 0 -5 -7 -8 -8 -5 -1 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 71 86 92 69 74 79 89 89 82 72 54 37 18 15 356 330 318 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 147 145 145 150 151 147 147 147 148 146 145 146 146 148 149 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 64 62 61 62 68 67 65 61 63 60 60 57 54 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 22 27 27 25 20 10 4 6 20 17 13 19 14 10 0 3 -2 200 MB DIV 55 38 27 -5 -13 -51 -41 -14 47 48 16 -3 5 -9 -10 -13 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 -6 -1 1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1573 1507 1451 1380 1309 1159 965 811 715 758 832 920 1034 1153 1230 1324 1450 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.6 12.3 12.7 12.8 12.1 11.7 11.6 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 143.3 144.0 144.6 145.3 146.0 147.7 149.7 151.7 153.6 155.6 157.7 159.7 161.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 8 10 10 10 9 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 15 11 9 9 14 30 22 26 39 27 26 13 11 13 65 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 17. 24. 30. 34. 38. 41. 44. 45. 46. 46. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 11. 17. 21. 22. 24. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 143.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP912024 INVEST 09/23/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.76 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.63 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.0% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% 16.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 13.0% 5.0% 1.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.5% 9.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 10.1% 5.8% 0.5% 0.4% 5.9% 5.6% 3.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912024 INVEST 09/23/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##