* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912024 09/22/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 36 44 49 51 52 54 57 59 59 60 61 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 36 44 49 51 52 54 57 59 59 60 61 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 34 35 34 34 36 38 41 43 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 9 8 9 8 11 14 23 15 13 12 10 11 11 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 -3 -6 -2 0 3 0 -3 -6 -9 -4 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 62 81 91 79 68 100 85 91 74 82 36 20 346 360 344 333 323 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 147 145 146 151 150 146 148 145 147 144 146 146 148 148 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 68 68 65 65 65 60 61 62 64 65 61 62 62 61 60 59 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 7 9 8 8 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 21 20 26 23 18 12 12 9 15 23 13 21 13 21 5 8 3 200 MB DIV 72 52 28 18 -18 -42 -47 -24 38 70 23 -5 25 8 10 -1 0 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 -3 -5 2 -1 -3 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1659 1600 1535 1477 1413 1247 1059 865 695 664 726 838 954 1084 1207 1303 1435 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.7 12.2 12.8 13.3 13.0 12.5 12.1 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 142.3 142.9 143.5 144.1 144.7 146.4 148.4 150.6 152.8 154.8 156.9 159.0 161.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 10 11 12 10 11 10 10 10 9 10 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 16 12 9 10 19 30 22 33 17 28 15 12 11 51 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 16. 24. 30. 34. 38. 41. 43. 44. 45. 46. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 11. 19. 24. 26. 27. 29. 32. 34. 34. 35. 36. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 142.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP912024 INVEST 09/22/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.77 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.62 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.31 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.8% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 17.0% 16.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 7.3% 3.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 7.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 8.1% 5.2% 0.2% 0.1% 5.8% 5.7% 2.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912024 INVEST 09/22/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##