* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912024 09/22/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 48 54 56 56 55 55 56 58 59 60 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 48 54 56 56 55 55 56 58 59 60 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 31 34 38 40 40 39 39 39 39 40 41 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 11 11 9 12 10 15 19 20 24 27 19 11 9 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -3 -5 -5 -3 5 1 -7 -8 -8 -3 -2 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 73 69 91 96 83 66 76 82 83 62 36 34 36 18 335 340 311 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 148 147 146 146 151 150 147 146 145 147 146 147 147 150 152 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 67 68 66 65 66 62 63 63 68 69 63 59 59 58 58 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 8 9 10 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 27 23 25 27 22 13 9 1 1 8 2 0 -1 -1 0 -9 -6 200 MB DIV 71 85 60 39 28 -19 -61 -55 -10 58 18 30 23 32 -2 -1 12 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 -6 -2 1 -1 -2 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1672 1606 1549 1500 1444 1302 1130 917 715 635 699 825 966 1115 1240 1378 1566 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.3 11.7 12.5 13.2 13.3 12.7 12.1 11.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 142.3 143.0 143.5 144.0 144.6 146.1 148.0 150.2 152.6 154.6 156.6 158.7 160.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 6 8 11 12 11 10 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 17 14 11 9 16 31 21 31 17 28 15 12 13 73 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 24. 30. 34. 38. 41. 43. 45. 46. 47. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -13. -14. -13. -10. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 23. 29. 31. 31. 30. 30. 31. 33. 34. 35. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 142.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP912024 INVEST 09/22/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.77 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.63 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.0% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 19.1% 18.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 23.8% 12.0% 3.4% 2.8% 1.7% 1.9% 16.6% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 15.3% 9.1% 1.2% 0.9% 6.9% 6.7% 5.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912024 INVEST 09/22/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##