* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 09/01/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 40 39 34 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 40 39 34 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 40 42 40 36 32 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 1 3 5 3 5 12 19 15 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -5 -4 -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 289 277 212 268 11 138 92 124 151 180 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 142 140 140 134 131 129 126 125 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.1 -54.8 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 62 62 58 56 52 51 53 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 9 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 44 47 47 64 62 20 -14 -39 -50 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 7 5 9 4 -13 -41 -3 -6 16 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 2 5 4 2 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2042 2102 2162 2170 2179 2223 2283 2393 2507 2591 2604 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.7 27.1 28.8 30.3 31.5 31.9 32.2 32.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 179.8 180.4 181.0 181.0 181.0 181.0 181.1 181.8 182.9 183.7 184.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 5 4 4 6 8 7 6 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 13 13 11 10 5 7 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 908 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 18. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. -1. -8. -14. -18. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.1 179.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 09/01/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.63 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.93 5.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.57 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 19.8% 14.3% 11.8% 9.8% 18.6% 16.3% 10.5% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 6.7% 4.9% 4.0% 3.3% 6.4% 5.6% 3.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.6% 3.8% 2.9% 2.5% 1.6% 3.2% 2.8% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 09/01/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##