* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962026 08/27/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 31 33 34 35 36 35 36 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 31 33 34 35 36 35 36 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 29 28 27 26 24 24 23 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 11 13 14 20 23 19 20 16 19 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 5 2 0 0 -1 -1 2 3 7 4 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 297 281 272 266 262 252 263 274 256 255 279 313 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.7 28.2 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 134 135 134 137 143 150 154 157 159 163 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 9 10 11 11 12 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 51 49 50 52 46 50 48 55 56 61 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 14 14 12 11 10 9 8 6 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 63 51 45 36 10 1 -15 -19 -21 -15 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 -16 13 22 9 -10 -9 22 -5 11 -6 12 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -14 -9 -1 0 -6 -10 -8 -7 -7 -7 -13 -5 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1879 1841 1681 1535 1409 1192 841 507 198 2 71 60 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 20 20 20 22 21 19 17 16 15 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 11 17 17 29 37 45 60 50 57 60 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 24. 30. 35. 38. 41. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -26. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.4 35.3 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962026 INVEST 08/27/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.58 1.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 30.0 to 152.9 0.60 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -49.7 -4.5 to -89.2 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 12.9% 8.7% 8.6% 4.3% 10.2% 10.5% 14.2% Logistic: 4.5% 12.6% 9.6% 3.5% 1.3% 4.7% 2.9% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% Consensus: 2.1% 9.0% 6.5% 4.0% 1.9% 5.0% 4.5% 6.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 5.0% 3.2% 2.0% 0.9% 2.5% 2.2% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962026 INVEST 08/27/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962026 INVEST 08/27/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 30 31 31 33 34 35 36 35 36 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 30 30 32 33 34 35 34 35 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 27 29 30 31 32 31 32 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 21 23 24 25 26 25 26 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT