* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962026 08/27/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 35 36 37 39 40 39 40 41 43 47 50 55 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 35 36 37 39 40 39 40 41 43 47 50 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 31 30 29 28 27 26 26 26 27 30 34 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 11 10 11 16 18 22 16 17 10 13 9 9 5 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 10 5 2 0 0 1 0 1 3 4 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 342 313 304 281 274 253 250 265 258 245 233 264 240 273 214 269 178 SST (C) 28.4 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 137 133 132 135 136 138 142 145 151 153 155 154 158 160 164 163 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 57 53 51 52 50 54 58 62 64 67 69 70 68 68 64 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 16 16 15 13 12 11 10 8 6 4 3 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 82 77 69 56 50 28 6 -13 -26 -30 -22 -35 -20 -32 -29 -58 -47 200 MB DIV -23 -19 -14 9 22 -2 -1 -7 38 16 37 -9 7 -3 15 0 7 700-850 TADV -13 -14 -6 -1 -3 -7 -9 -3 -7 -4 -9 -7 -5 -7 -3 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1687 1864 1836 1707 1563 1325 1147 837 575 401 182 34 51 91 178 184 236 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.4 16.2 16.9 17.5 18.0 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.1 35.1 37.0 39.0 40.9 44.8 48.5 52.0 55.1 57.8 60.0 62.0 63.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 19 19 19 19 18 16 14 12 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 12 13 11 16 27 30 37 42 42 58 53 61 58 56 61 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 24. 30. 34. 38. 40. 42. 43. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -5. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -9. -12. -15. -19. -22. -26. -27. -27. -27. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 10. 11. 13. 17. 20. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 33.1 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962026 INVEST 08/27/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.57 1.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 30.0 to 152.9 0.62 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -47.1 -4.5 to -89.2 0.50 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 13.0% 8.8% 8.6% 4.3% 10.4% 11.1% 15.2% Logistic: 4.6% 11.1% 9.6% 3.3% 1.1% 3.8% 3.6% 6.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 1.3% Consensus: 2.1% 8.4% 6.4% 4.0% 1.8% 4.8% 5.0% 7.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.5% 5.2% 3.7% 2.0% 0.9% 2.4% 2.5% 4.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962026 INVEST 08/27/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 33 35 36 37 39 40 39 40 41 43 47 50 55 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 33 34 35 37 38 37 38 39 41 45 48 53 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 30 31 32 34 35 34 35 36 38 42 45 50 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 24 25 27 28 27 28 29 31 35 38 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT