* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962026 08/26/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 39 41 44 45 46 47 48 48 48 50 51 57 59 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 39 41 44 45 46 47 48 48 48 50 51 57 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 37 37 37 36 35 34 33 33 33 33 34 37 42 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 7 11 13 13 18 19 19 13 13 10 10 6 4 9 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 12 10 7 1 0 0 0 0 3 6 2 3 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 25 3 328 304 294 267 252 250 267 253 261 231 258 212 280 181 177 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 142 136 134 133 137 138 141 147 148 152 154 156 156 161 163 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 7 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 57 53 50 48 49 53 59 60 65 68 68 66 66 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 18 19 18 16 15 13 12 11 9 8 6 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 69 79 87 83 76 57 37 13 -9 -15 -34 -22 -42 -20 -29 -16 -41 200 MB DIV -10 -20 -15 -17 0 24 -6 -13 -3 25 17 36 -16 10 -9 29 6 700-850 TADV -9 -15 -15 -15 -9 -4 -9 -10 -7 -6 -3 -10 -7 -7 -7 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1244 1455 1668 1893 1898 1563 1288 1087 732 477 283 58 6 27 71 146 145 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.3 16.1 16.9 17.6 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.0 31.0 33.0 35.1 37.2 41.5 45.7 49.5 53.0 56.2 59.0 61.2 63.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 20 20 21 20 19 18 17 15 13 10 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 18 12 13 15 23 32 38 40 45 50 57 44 57 60 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 24. 30. 35. 38. 41. 43. 44. 46. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -2. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. -23. -25. -24. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 20. 21. 27. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 29.0 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962026 INVEST 08/26/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.51 1.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 30.0 to 152.9 0.66 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -39.4 -4.5 to -89.2 0.41 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 13.6% 9.3% 9.1% 4.6% 10.5% 11.2% 14.3% Logistic: 6.8% 6.3% 6.0% 2.0% 0.4% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% Bayesian: 1.1% 2.8% 3.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% Consensus: 3.3% 7.5% 6.4% 3.8% 1.7% 4.3% 4.4% 5.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.6% 4.2% 3.2% 1.9% 0.8% 2.1% 2.2% 3.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962026 INVEST 08/26/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 38 39 41 44 45 46 47 48 48 48 50 51 57 59 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 35 37 40 41 42 43 44 44 44 46 47 53 55 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 32 35 36 37 38 39 39 39 41 42 48 50 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 26 27 28 29 30 30 30 32 33 39 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT