* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962026 08/26/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 35 37 40 43 45 48 53 58 62 65 68 72 75 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 35 37 40 43 45 48 53 58 62 65 68 71 74 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 35 35 34 33 33 33 35 39 44 50 56 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 10 13 15 17 19 24 19 11 7 2 5 5 9 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 5 8 4 2 -3 -4 0 1 1 9 6 9 2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 356 317 303 294 286 265 237 238 238 261 248 261 199 156 139 117 117 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 141 140 137 132 134 136 141 143 151 152 153 154 154 158 156 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 60 57 53 52 47 52 56 59 59 65 65 65 62 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 65 77 81 75 61 47 25 10 -6 -10 -19 -22 -14 -19 -13 -7 200 MB DIV 18 10 -6 1 -15 3 -7 13 -12 27 32 35 -1 8 0 11 17 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -19 -18 -14 -1 -6 -8 -7 -4 -1 -1 -7 -4 -6 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1019 1207 1397 1611 1846 1767 1448 1192 907 600 404 221 31 21 18 6 86 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.9 28.7 30.5 32.5 34.7 39.2 43.5 47.6 51.2 54.4 57.3 59.6 61.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 19 20 21 22 20 18 17 15 13 10 8 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 15 16 14 9 12 20 29 34 36 44 57 50 59 58 0 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 24. 30. 35. 38. 41. 43. 44. 46. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. -1. -3. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 38. 42. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 26.9 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962026 INVEST 08/26/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.54 1.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 30.0 to 152.9 0.66 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -47.0 -4.5 to -89.2 0.50 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.14 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 13.9% 9.3% 9.0% 4.4% 10.2% 11.1% 14.7% Logistic: 6.8% 12.4% 10.2% 3.3% 1.0% 3.2% 1.7% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 1.1% Consensus: 3.1% 9.4% 7.1% 4.1% 1.8% 4.7% 4.5% 5.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.0% 5.2% 3.5% 2.0% 0.9% 2.3% 2.2% 3.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962026 INVEST 08/26/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 34 35 37 40 43 45 48 53 58 62 65 68 71 74 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 34 37 40 42 45 50 55 59 62 65 68 71 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 30 33 36 38 41 46 51 55 58 61 64 67 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 26 29 31 34 39 44 48 51 54 57 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT