* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962026 08/26/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 30 34 38 44 50 56 56 57 60 63 64 66 69 73 76 V (KT) LAND 25 26 30 34 38 44 50 56 56 57 60 63 64 66 69 73 76 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 33 34 35 34 33 32 33 35 38 43 49 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 5 4 7 9 10 16 18 13 7 3 4 1 7 1 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 5 6 12 7 4 0 3 3 6 14 5 9 0 7 3 SHEAR DIR 18 10 353 280 312 284 267 244 242 246 204 239 175 188 122 128 77 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.3 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 141 142 137 133 136 137 138 143 141 147 148 146 148 147 150 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 10 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 61 59 52 49 46 44 50 56 57 61 60 61 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 14 17 19 21 22 20 21 17 16 16 15 13 13 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 47 47 66 86 91 82 72 69 49 29 26 -5 0 -9 4 0 -1 200 MB DIV 11 46 43 5 8 2 43 21 -2 8 18 27 3 22 6 0 11 700-850 TADV -9 -7 -6 -12 -19 -9 -2 -2 -4 0 1 5 1 -2 0 -2 3 LAND (KM) 817 990 1191 1416 1652 1882 1493 1179 959 846 621 466 397 377 399 360 332 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.4 14.0 13.4 13.1 13.1 13.7 14.4 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.0 26.7 28.6 30.7 32.9 37.6 42.0 45.8 48.9 51.6 53.7 55.3 56.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 20 21 22 23 20 17 14 12 10 7 6 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 14 16 11 12 16 24 29 33 33 43 48 46 43 40 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 33. 38. 42. 45. 47. 48. 51. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 4. 1. -0. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 9. 13. 19. 25. 31. 31. 32. 35. 38. 39. 41. 44. 48. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 25.0 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962026 INVEST 08/26/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.58 1.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 30.0 to 152.9 0.71 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -24.6 -4.5 to -89.2 0.24 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 13.2% 9.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 7.9% 6.1% 1.8% 0.4% 1.6% 0.8% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.6% 7.3% 5.2% 3.3% 0.1% 0.6% 3.7% 0.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.3% 5.6% 3.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.3% 1.8% 0.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962026 INVEST 08/26/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 30 34 38 44 50 56 56 57 60 63 64 66 69 73 76 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 36 42 48 54 54 55 58 61 62 64 67 71 74 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 35 41 47 47 48 51 54 55 57 60 64 67 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 25 31 37 37 38 41 44 45 47 50 54 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT