* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962026 08/25/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 38 45 55 66 73 79 78 77 79 79 80 81 82 84 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 38 45 55 66 73 79 78 77 79 79 80 81 82 84 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 37 44 51 56 59 59 57 55 55 57 60 62 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 10 8 1 4 7 10 17 11 4 7 9 16 18 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 5 6 4 11 7 5 6 6 7 7 5 0 2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 7 50 43 49 60 9 300 261 248 249 270 225 250 205 237 250 271 SST (C) 29.2 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.3 27.9 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 150 149 148 147 143 136 137 134 135 132 133 130 131 128 137 146 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 9 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 70 68 65 65 65 63 57 54 50 47 51 55 56 62 62 65 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 15 17 21 23 25 24 25 24 22 22 22 22 23 24 28 850 MB ENV VOR 54 51 56 62 72 91 94 89 70 44 14 0 2 8 14 16 8 200 MB DIV 0 7 40 49 46 -2 9 44 15 42 27 26 20 37 20 37 -6 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -8 -10 -12 -8 -9 2 3 0 -1 0 1 2 4 9 13 LAND (KM) 554 683 829 1003 1192 1607 1855 1552 1272 1086 989 1023 1111 1170 1273 1452 1628 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.8 12.9 13.7 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.0 23.5 25.0 26.7 28.5 32.4 36.6 40.5 43.8 46.4 48.0 48.8 49.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 16 17 18 20 20 18 14 10 6 5 6 8 11 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 12 12 17 14 20 16 17 19 23 24 28 23 26 19 30 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 13. 21. 27. 34. 39. 43. 45. 47. 48. 50. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 12. 13. 14. 12. 9. 8. 7. 6. 7. 7. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 20. 30. 41. 48. 54. 53. 52. 54. 54. 55. 56. 57. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 22.0 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962026 INVEST 08/25/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.60 2.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 30.0 to 152.9 0.77 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -32.3 -4.5 to -89.2 0.33 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.27 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 14.0% 9.3% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 12.3% 8.1% 2.1% 0.6% 2.9% 2.7% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 2.1% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 1.4% 2.8% 1.3% Consensus: 2.3% 9.5% 6.4% 3.5% 0.2% 1.4% 6.0% 1.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 12.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% SDCON: 2.1% 10.7% 4.7% 2.2% 0.1% 1.2% 4.0% 1.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962026 INVEST 08/25/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 38 45 55 66 73 79 78 77 79 79 80 81 82 84 18HR AGO 25 24 28 34 41 51 62 69 75 74 73 75 75 76 77 78 80 12HR AGO 25 22 21 27 34 44 55 62 68 67 66 68 68 69 70 71 73 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 22 32 43 50 56 55 54 56 56 57 58 59 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT