* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962026 08/25/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 25 29 34 46 60 67 72 73 76 75 76 75 75 75 77 V (KT) LAND 20 21 25 29 34 46 60 67 72 73 76 75 76 75 75 75 77 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 41 43 44 43 42 40 41 43 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 8 9 10 3 5 6 13 16 19 8 10 10 21 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 4 8 8 4 8 7 6 8 7 9 4 3 1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 7 11 29 19 25 126 311 242 255 254 260 264 231 255 253 265 272 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.0 27.4 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.7 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 153 154 155 152 151 140 132 136 134 134 135 134 136 138 149 157 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.9 -51.7 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 73 72 70 68 67 67 64 58 55 49 51 53 59 62 66 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 14 17 18 23 27 27 27 25 26 25 25 24 25 27 30 850 MB ENV VOR 43 57 59 61 74 86 91 91 78 56 32 5 5 7 15 14 5 200 MB DIV 13 3 34 55 46 21 7 48 27 45 4 6 20 44 24 55 19 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -6 -10 -9 -4 -10 -1 3 1 0 3 4 7 9 12 11 LAND (KM) 434 554 690 803 944 1284 1703 1843 1508 1281 1128 1118 1232 1292 1433 1565 1720 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.3 13.0 13.6 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.6 14.2 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.6 21.8 23.1 24.4 25.9 29.3 33.3 37.6 41.6 44.7 46.8 47.9 48.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 16 18 21 20 18 13 8 5 8 12 12 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 12 12 14 16 17 12 18 25 27 34 32 29 33 32 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 30. 37. 42. 47. 49. 51. 52. 54. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 10. 16. 17. 18. 16. 17. 13. 13. 10. 11. 12. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 9. 14. 26. 40. 47. 52. 53. 56. 55. 56. 55. 55. 55. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.3 20.6 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962026 INVEST 08/25/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.55 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 30.0 to 152.9 0.84 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -30.2 -4.5 to -89.2 0.30 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.27 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 12.5% 7.4% 2.2% 1.0% 3.0% 3.6% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 2.5% 1.2% Consensus: 1.4% 4.8% 2.6% 0.7% 0.3% 1.1% 2.0% 1.5% DTOPS: 3.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 8.0% SDCON: 2.2% 5.9% 2.3% 0.8% 0.1% 1.0% 1.5% 4.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962026 INVEST 08/25/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 25 29 34 46 60 67 72 73 76 75 76 75 75 75 77 18HR AGO 20 19 23 27 32 44 58 65 70 71 74 73 74 73 73 73 75 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 25 37 51 58 63 64 67 66 67 66 66 66 68 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT