* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952026 08/26/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 36 39 43 47 53 58 58 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 36 39 43 47 53 58 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 27 25 24 26 27 27 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 31 40 43 48 48 45 44 32 27 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 6 3 -4 -4 0 -8 -3 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 202 203 214 229 249 275 269 265 262 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 22.8 18.6 16.1 15.8 16.3 17.7 18.3 19.6 14.0 11.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 96 81 77 77 77 79 80 84 74 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.2 -52.5 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -1.2 -0.6 -0.3 0.2 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 48 47 50 59 61 61 59 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 10 9 10 9 11 15 18 17 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -40 -32 -57 7 29 7 75 38 56 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 55 48 57 48 37 15 -5 -11 14 -96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 15 31 -29 -8 -18 12 -11 -3 24 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 645 430 232 357 664 1378 1063 569 195 -46 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.7 42.8 44.8 46.6 48.1 49.5 49.4 48.9 49.6 51.9 55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.3 54.5 51.7 48.1 43.8 34.1 24.8 16.6 8.3 -0.4 -9.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 27 30 32 33 32 28 27 28 32 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 23 CX,CY: 10/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 14. 10. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 0. -1. 1. 6. 9. 6. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 9. 13. 17. 23. 28. 28. 31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 40.7 56.3 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952026 INVEST 08/26/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 48.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.19 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.4 30.0 to 152.9 0.20 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -38.5 -4.5 to -89.2 0.40 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952026 INVEST 08/26/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952026 INVEST 08/26/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 36 39 43 47 53 58 39 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 33 36 40 44 50 55 36 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 30 34 38 44 49 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 31 37 42 23 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT