* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952026 08/25/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 39 41 47 54 59 57 58 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 39 41 47 54 59 57 44 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 31 31 28 28 30 30 30 27 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 17 23 26 33 37 45 32 26 29 35 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 7 6 4 7 -2 0 -4 0 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 208 194 202 201 201 227 253 280 282 272 270 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.2 27.1 23.6 18.7 16.7 17.2 18.6 19.6 21.3 17.2 16.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 130 130 101 82 78 78 81 84 90 78 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 -55.2 -54.9 -54.6 -54.9 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 51 47 45 45 47 56 56 58 47 41 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 10 12 10 8 12 16 18 16 15 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -32 -33 -42 -46 -51 -18 -15 6 -7 0 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 81 61 53 54 55 35 -4 -9 -13 1 -88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 17 12 44 42 22 6 34 20 20 36 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 929 781 657 470 298 719 1399 1166 703 279 -124 -410 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.8 38.6 40.5 42.4 44.4 47.3 48.3 47.6 46.5 46.2 47.1 48.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.0 58.0 56.4 54.1 51.0 43.1 33.9 25.0 16.7 8.4 0.0 -9.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 21 24 28 30 31 31 30 29 29 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 17 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 20 CX,CY: 7/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 10. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. -3. 0. 5. 7. 3. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 9. 11. 17. 24. 29. 27. 28. 28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 36.8 59.0 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952026 INVEST 08/25/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.28 0.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.8 30.0 to 152.9 0.36 0.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -44.2 -4.5 to -89.2 0.47 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.43 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 9.5% 6.8% 6.1% 2.1% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.5% 2.5% 2.1% 0.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.6% 2.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952026 INVEST 08/25/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952026 INVEST 08/25/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 39 41 47 54 59 57 44 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 36 38 44 51 56 54 41 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 32 38 45 50 48 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 29 36 41 39 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT