* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952026 08/25/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 36 39 39 38 48 45 46 44 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 36 39 39 38 48 45 46 44 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 32 30 28 28 27 26 26 25 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 14 23 23 26 29 32 32 35 30 34 41 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 1 5 3 3 6 5 0 1 0 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 193 183 183 191 191 191 222 257 260 272 275 275 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.1 27.5 27.3 25.5 16.6 19.6 19.2 19.3 19.9 21.5 22.3 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 133 132 114 77 84 83 83 85 90 94 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.6 -55.2 -55.0 -54.9 -55.1 -55.4 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.7 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 2 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 62 55 48 46 43 48 51 55 52 43 41 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 9 11 8 6 14 11 12 9 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -24 -16 -26 -41 -60 -83 -38 -16 -13 -16 -29 -68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 64 58 46 39 46 36 30 2 -20 -1 -2 -100 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 17 14 10 22 -1 65 5 -20 8 0 3 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1094 969 869 757 658 413 869 1525 1200 560 154 -50 -416 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.6 36.0 37.5 39.1 40.8 44.2 46.4 46.8 46.0 45.1 45.1 46.2 48.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.2 59.8 58.8 57.2 55.1 49.1 41.3 32.5 23.9 15.6 8.0 0.5 -7.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 19 22 25 29 30 30 30 28 26 28 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 20 17 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 3/ 14 CX,CY: 1/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 9. 6. 5. 4. 2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 1. -2. -5. 3. -1. -1. -6. -13. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 9. 9. 8. 18. 15. 17. 14. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.6 60.2 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952026 INVEST 08/25/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.43 1.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 30.0 to 152.9 0.45 0.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -19.5 -4.5 to -89.2 0.18 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.37 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 9.1% 6.9% 5.9% 2.5% 6.4% 3.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.5% 2.6% 2.1% 0.9% 2.2% 1.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 2.7% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952026 INVEST 08/25/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952026 INVEST 08/25/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 36 39 39 38 48 45 46 44 33 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 33 36 36 35 45 42 43 41 30 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 30 30 29 39 36 37 35 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 23 22 32 29 30 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT