* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952026 08/25/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 42 44 45 54 55 60 59 53 51 51 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 42 44 45 54 55 60 59 53 35 30 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 38 37 35 35 34 35 35 33 30 30 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 20 18 21 24 29 29 32 26 29 33 39 46 51 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 3 6 4 6 4 0 -1 -2 0 -2 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 185 197 195 176 187 196 223 229 260 265 264 269 275 276 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.0 28.1 27.4 27.6 20.5 19.1 18.7 19.8 19.6 20.9 22.7 17.5 15.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 141 133 136 87 82 82 84 83 87 95 78 76 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -55.1 -54.9 -54.9 -55.5 -55.8 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 3 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 65 56 47 43 42 47 49 53 46 35 36 43 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 11 13 13 11 10 17 16 19 17 14 14 13 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -40 -25 -12 -26 -51 -59 -41 -40 -31 -44 -37 -59 -83 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 57 71 67 61 40 53 21 7 -6 0 12 14 -102 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 14 22 14 9 46 28 14 14 -8 2 20 11 36 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1219 1076 939 839 728 405 674 1290 1380 833 274 185 -299 -401 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.3 34.7 36.3 37.9 39.6 43.2 45.9 46.9 46.3 45.2 44.7 45.1 46.7 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.5 60.4 59.8 58.5 56.7 51.4 44.1 35.6 27.1 19.2 11.8 4.6 -2.7 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 18 21 24 29 29 30 29 27 26 26 29 37 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 15 24 16 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 13 CX,CY: 2/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 4. 8. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 2. -2. -7. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. 7. 4. 8. 5. -0. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 24. 25. 30. 29. 23. 21. 21. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.3 60.5 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952026 INVEST 08/25/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.45 1.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.8 30.0 to 152.9 0.50 0.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -28.4 -4.5 to -89.2 0.28 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.40 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 13.4% 9.4% 8.1% 3.8% 8.4% 5.7% 4.5% Logistic: 2.6% 4.1% 2.4% 1.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.8% 4.0% 3.2% 1.3% 3.0% 1.9% 1.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 5.4% 3.0% 1.6% 0.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952026 INVEST 08/25/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952026 INVEST 08/25/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 40 42 44 45 54 55 60 59 53 35 30 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 33 36 38 40 41 50 51 56 55 49 31 26 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 33 34 43 44 49 48 42 24 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 25 34 35 40 39 33 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT