* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952026 08/24/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 44 49 48 56 60 59 58 52 53 52 51 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 44 49 48 56 60 59 58 52 47 33 30 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 41 39 39 39 38 37 36 36 30 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 16 17 14 19 21 23 24 24 23 25 33 39 49 55 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 2 6 1 10 1 -2 0 0 3 5 0 -6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 188 188 201 187 171 192 209 223 229 259 277 262 266 275 283 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.9 27.3 25.2 19.7 20.6 20.4 19.7 20.2 20.2 23.4 18.5 16.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 136 138 131 112 84 87 86 83 84 84 99 81 78 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -55.3 -55.8 -55.7 -55.1 -55.0 -55.7 -55.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 64 57 45 41 46 48 50 49 48 40 37 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 12 13 15 12 18 18 17 16 13 16 16 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -50 -42 -31 -24 -48 -70 -76 -78 -83 -72 -46 -36 -34 -69 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 49 63 73 77 50 41 17 8 4 -3 2 9 -3 -150 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 3 10 23 14 18 43 6 4 20 3 -7 -13 4 23 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1356 1225 1097 976 870 615 480 972 1612 1196 653 118 68 -218 -292 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.0 33.3 34.6 36.1 37.7 41.1 44.3 45.9 45.7 44.4 43.2 43.1 44.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.5 60.3 60.1 59.4 58.2 54.2 47.9 40.1 31.7 24.0 17.3 10.7 3.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 17 20 26 28 29 29 27 24 25 27 28 35 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 17 14 17 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 12 CX,CY: 5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 8. 7. 6. 2. -3. -8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 7. 8. 6. 3. -2. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 19. 18. 26. 30. 29. 28. 22. 23. 22. 21. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.0 60.5 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952026 INVEST 08/24/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.59 2.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 30.0 to 152.9 0.49 0.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -34.3 -4.5 to -89.2 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.44 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.5 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 14.4% 9.8% 8.3% 4.0% 10.1% 9.1% 9.0% Logistic: 4.7% 11.3% 6.5% 3.2% 0.7% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 8.6% 5.5% 3.9% 1.6% 4.2% 3.2% 3.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.8% 6.8% 3.2% 1.9% 0.8% 2.1% 1.6% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952026 INVEST 08/24/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952026 INVEST 08/24/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 40 44 49 48 56 60 59 58 52 47 33 30 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 33 36 40 45 44 52 56 55 54 48 43 29 26 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 38 37 45 49 48 47 41 36 22 19 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 28 36 40 39 38 32 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT