* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952026 08/24/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 45 49 51 52 56 53 51 54 59 54 50 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 45 49 51 52 56 53 51 54 59 54 32 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 38 41 42 41 40 38 39 42 46 45 31 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 12 12 17 10 20 24 28 22 18 19 26 41 51 58 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -6 -3 1 -3 3 0 5 0 0 0 0 3 1 -1 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 202 222 218 177 174 190 184 207 228 214 238 245 253 256 269 278 N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.7 26.7 24.6 22.1 20.7 21.0 19.9 21.6 20.0 23.4 17.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 147 146 143 135 124 107 92 87 88 84 90 85 100 80 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 -55.3 -55.5 -55.7 -55.8 -55.6 -55.4 -55.0 -55.0 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 68 68 69 68 63 48 46 45 49 52 55 52 44 40 42 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 13 13 13 13 16 13 12 14 20 19 16 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -39 -46 -43 -50 -33 -36 -47 -56 -72 -81 -74 -60 -25 -35 -49 N/A 200 MB DIV 38 12 15 83 64 68 29 45 36 25 21 14 7 24 7 -87 N/A 700-850 TADV -7 2 1 2 2 16 3 23 -19 -30 -8 5 22 12 17 25 N/A LAND (KM) 1252 1317 1412 1372 1260 1034 853 574 566 1044 1631 1211 637 81 53 -289 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.2 29.9 30.9 31.9 33.0 35.6 38.4 41.5 44.3 45.5 45.3 44.1 43.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.7 59.9 60.2 60.3 60.2 59.2 56.5 52.4 46.6 39.3 31.6 24.2 17.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 12 16 19 24 26 26 27 26 26 27 30 34 N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 33 15 11 14 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 1. -4. -5. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 6. 2. -1. 2. 8. 6. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 24. 26. 28. 31. 28. 26. 29. 34. 29. 25. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.2 59.7 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952026 INVEST 08/24/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.71 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 30.0 to 152.9 0.59 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -32.4 -4.5 to -89.2 0.33 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 16.8% 11.3% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 26.3% 17.2% 15.9% 5.0% 19.3% 8.5% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 14.6% 9.6% 8.6% 1.7% 6.4% 7.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.1% 8.8% 5.3% 4.3% 0.8% 3.2% 3.5% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952026 INVEST 08/24/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952026 INVEST 08/24/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 35 38 45 49 51 52 56 53 51 54 59 54 32 DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 34 41 45 47 48 52 49 47 50 55 50 28 DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 35 39 41 42 46 43 41 44 49 44 22 DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 29 31 32 36 33 31 34 39 34 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT