* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952026 08/23/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 43 51 56 55 55 54 50 46 43 49 52 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 43 51 56 55 55 54 50 46 43 49 34 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 40 44 46 45 41 39 36 35 36 38 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 8 12 11 11 17 16 16 27 27 23 19 25 28 33 38 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -5 -1 -1 -2 1 0 2 1 -1 0 -1 4 1 6 4 SHEAR DIR 260 209 217 219 182 197 174 202 225 250 263 267 245 244 240 253 262 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.4 27.3 21.4 19.9 19.4 21.4 20.5 22.3 21.2 22.5 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 147 144 138 131 131 89 84 83 90 85 92 87 95 83 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -55.2 -55.5 -55.8 -55.8 -55.8 -56.1 -55.8 -55.5 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -1.0 -0.8 -1.2 -1.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 700-500 MB RH 62 66 67 67 69 65 55 50 49 54 53 55 49 46 44 40 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 10 11 14 15 12 11 10 7 5 3 8 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -23 -38 -44 -35 -39 -32 -47 -48 -49 -67 -88 -77 -69 -29 -9 -32 200 MB DIV 38 22 21 25 83 51 54 17 58 6 15 -10 -29 -1 31 10 10 700-850 TADV 0 -8 0 1 3 10 5 7 24 29 11 24 11 7 -18 11 0 LAND (KM) 1191 1255 1314 1404 1364 1152 976 803 474 685 1247 1588 1065 635 201 -49 -124 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.3 30.0 30.9 31.9 34.1 36.7 39.5 42.7 45.1 45.5 44.2 42.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.7 59.9 60.3 60.5 60.6 60.0 58.1 55.3 50.8 44.4 36.6 28.9 22.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 10 13 17 21 25 27 28 27 23 20 22 27 30 HEAT CONTENT 23 30 29 16 13 19 1 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 5. 2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 2. -0. -2. -7. -11. -14. -7. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 26. 31. 30. 30. 29. 25. 21. 18. 24. 27. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.6 59.7 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952026 INVEST 08/23/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.78 2.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 30.0 to 152.9 0.60 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -24.9 -4.5 to -89.2 0.24 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.31 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 15.8% 10.8% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 13.7% 8.0% 5.9% 1.4% 11.1% 11.1% 2.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 9.9% 6.3% 5.0% 0.5% 3.7% 8.2% 0.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.5% 5.9% 3.6% 2.5% 0.2% 1.8% 4.1% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952026 INVEST 08/23/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952026 INVEST 08/23/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 37 43 51 56 55 55 54 50 46 43 49 34 31 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 34 40 48 53 52 52 51 47 43 40 46 31 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 34 42 47 46 46 45 41 37 34 40 25 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 25 33 38 37 37 36 32 28 25 31 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT