* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952026 08/23/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 44 48 49 53 52 49 45 41 38 38 44 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 44 48 49 53 52 49 45 41 38 38 32 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 28 31 33 34 33 32 30 29 28 28 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 10 14 11 21 14 19 22 34 37 41 39 37 38 43 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 -2 -5 -1 0 -1 0 4 -2 1 -2 0 -1 1 3 2 SHEAR DIR 296 178 186 201 209 170 198 200 213 233 238 264 276 275 263 268 263 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.4 27.7 27.1 25.1 16.4 19.0 17.9 20.3 20.6 21.3 23.0 18.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 154 152 148 143 134 128 110 76 82 79 86 86 88 97 81 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -55.1 -55.0 -55.3 -55.8 -56.1 -56.0 -56.2 -56.2 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -1.0 -1.1 -0.9 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 700-500 MB RH 62 63 66 67 67 67 61 52 53 52 56 59 55 48 43 41 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 10 13 13 11 13 10 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -26 -24 -34 -35 -31 -26 -40 -47 -45 20 -24 -43 -67 -72 -59 -37 200 MB DIV 16 39 41 25 30 48 56 17 46 43 24 22 -5 -18 -15 1 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 -6 0 1 7 6 7 25 24 17 18 24 21 9 16 29 LAND (KM) 1149 1206 1260 1313 1394 1247 1066 914 660 413 820 1424 1336 757 210 48 -212 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.0 29.6 30.2 31.0 32.9 35.1 37.5 40.7 44.2 46.6 47.0 45.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.0 60.4 60.7 61.1 61.3 61.0 59.6 57.4 54.3 49.1 41.9 33.8 25.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 9 11 14 17 23 27 28 28 28 26 24 25 27 HEAT CONTENT 22 26 29 27 16 20 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 4. 8. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 20. 20. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 0. -4. -9. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 6. 6. 3. 4. 0. -5. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 24. 28. 29. 33. 32. 29. 25. 21. 18. 18. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 28.3 60.0 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952026 INVEST 08/23/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.82 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 30.0 to 152.9 0.65 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 10.0 -4.5 to -89.2 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.27 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 6.2% 3.6% 1.8% 0.3% 5.0% 4.3% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 1.7% 1.4% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952026 INVEST 08/23/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952026 INVEST 08/23/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 28 35 44 48 49 53 52 49 45 41 38 38 32 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 26 33 42 46 47 51 50 47 43 39 36 36 30 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 28 37 41 42 46 45 42 38 34 31 31 25 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT