* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952026 08/23/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 27 34 40 48 54 56 55 49 43 39 33 31 33 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 27 34 40 48 54 56 55 49 43 39 33 31 33 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 27 29 32 34 37 38 37 36 35 34 34 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 2 11 15 15 23 18 22 17 18 24 31 37 40 48 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 0 0 -3 0 -2 -1 -5 0 -3 -2 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 280 285 195 182 204 169 205 190 240 224 237 247 265 261 259 247 240 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.6 26.6 26.2 24.1 23.2 22.9 22.0 21.7 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 158 158 157 149 146 142 132 122 119 102 98 96 92 90 89 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 -55.1 -55.5 -55.8 -56.1 -56.4 -56.8 -56.3 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 6 4 2 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 61 63 67 67 70 68 63 59 52 47 46 48 53 57 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 12 13 14 13 8 4 3 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -27 -24 -21 -34 -42 -42 -58 -74 -67 -78 -86 -84 -65 -35 0 0 200 MB DIV 7 17 35 33 22 70 27 23 30 47 5 30 10 29 26 5 11 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 -6 2 2 2 2 0 9 -1 6 15 -15 1 -10 4 LAND (KM) 1067 1070 1099 1151 1198 1348 1365 1243 1156 1020 850 758 986 1435 1582 1036 518 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.6 29.1 30.5 32.0 33.5 34.9 37.0 39.0 40.9 42.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.7 60.2 60.5 60.8 61.0 61.0 60.2 59.2 58.0 55.8 52.5 48.0 42.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 6 6 8 8 9 10 15 18 21 24 25 25 24 24 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 24 26 28 22 12 17 15 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 5. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 1. -3. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 7. 4. -4. -9. -10. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 20. 28. 34. 36. 35. 29. 23. 19. 13. 11. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 27.4 59.7 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952026 INVEST 08/23/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.78 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 30.0 to 152.9 0.67 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 1.2 -4.5 to -89.2 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 8.1% 4.6% 1.9% 0.4% 3.8% 6.2% 8.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1.3% 2.1% 2.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.4% 2.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 1.0% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952026 INVEST 08/23/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952026 INVEST 08/23/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 25 27 34 40 48 54 56 55 49 43 39 33 31 33 18HR AGO 20 19 20 23 25 32 38 46 52 54 53 47 41 37 31 29 31 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 21 28 34 42 48 50 49 43 37 33 27 25 27 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT