* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952026 08/23/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 33 40 47 52 53 55 52 48 44 39 37 39 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 33 40 47 52 53 55 52 48 44 39 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 33 35 37 39 40 40 39 38 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 11 1 11 10 26 16 24 15 16 16 19 20 28 30 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -5 1 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 -1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 254 273 282 222 181 202 176 204 223 238 234 250 261 260 270 248 235 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.3 28.7 28.7 28.3 27.5 26.8 26.7 25.3 23.9 23.7 23.9 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 158 157 158 156 146 146 139 130 123 123 111 102 101 103 96 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 -55.2 -55.6 -55.8 -56.0 -56.0 -55.9 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 5 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 55 58 60 61 66 68 68 61 56 55 53 52 48 48 45 45 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 7 9 11 13 12 13 10 7 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -23 -25 -22 -20 -45 -36 -51 -75 -75 -84 -86 -86 -93 -82 -56 17 200 MB DIV 26 2 17 35 24 12 60 14 27 11 1 13 -2 -4 -9 4 15 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -2 -1 -3 0 2 0 0 3 3 10 1 2 -14 -25 -38 LAND (KM) 1039 1018 1026 1066 1120 1233 1420 1355 1281 1195 1077 936 806 970 1418 1672 1095 LAT (DEG N) 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.6 28.2 29.4 31.0 32.3 33.4 34.7 36.4 38.2 40.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.3 59.6 60.0 60.3 60.5 60.9 60.3 59.5 58.5 57.6 55.9 53.1 49.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 5 6 6 7 8 8 6 9 13 16 20 24 27 27 26 HEAT CONTENT 27 30 26 24 24 28 16 12 15 12 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):195/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 388 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 6. 10. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. 16. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 4. 4. -1. -5. -9. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 20. 27. 32. 33. 35. 32. 28. 24. 19. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 27.0 59.3 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952026 INVEST 08/23/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.79 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 30.0 to 152.9 0.67 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 6.6 -4.5 to -89.2 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.23 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 20.3% 14.8% 5.3% 1.2% 8.0% 5.9% 11.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 7.0% 5.0% 1.8% 0.4% 2.7% 2.0% 4.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952026 INVEST 08/23/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952026 INVEST 08/23/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 27 33 40 47 52 53 55 52 48 44 39 37 39 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 25 31 38 45 50 51 53 50 46 42 37 35 37 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 27 34 41 46 47 49 46 42 38 33 31 33 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT