* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942026 08/15/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 32 36 41 46 50 54 58 59 63 64 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 32 36 41 46 50 54 58 52 52 49 53 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 32 33 33 34 35 32 37 35 38 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 2 5 10 11 9 13 12 14 14 17 19 18 23 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 9 4 3 3 4 -3 2 1 1 0 -2 -2 -3 -8 SHEAR DIR 51 51 49 310 277 301 296 237 245 211 236 211 219 205 219 192 229 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.6 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 140 143 146 142 139 143 145 149 152 154 156 156 162 163 172 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 13 12 14 13 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 58 56 56 56 55 56 52 50 48 45 45 43 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 57 48 37 26 16 -17 -23 -49 -49 -63 -49 -57 -47 -63 -77 -100 200 MB DIV -22 -24 -22 -16 -17 -6 4 32 4 18 -4 3 -17 -9 -4 2 3 700-850 TADV -5 -8 -9 -7 -1 -3 -3 -7 -1 -6 -4 -3 -5 -1 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1312 1175 1060 953 865 803 630 405 262 139 43 50 -16 -4 31 31 -22 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.6 12.4 13.4 14.4 15.1 15.8 16.3 17.3 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.7 43.4 45.0 46.6 48.1 51.0 53.6 55.9 58.0 60.0 62.2 64.5 67.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 15 15 14 13 12 10 10 12 12 13 12 13 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 23 24 29 30 33 42 49 51 54 62 35 20 63 44 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 34. 39. 43. 46. 48. 49. 52. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 21. 25. 29. 33. 34. 38. 39. 43. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 41.7 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942026 INVEST 08/15/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.74 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 30.0 to 152.9 0.70 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -14.9 -4.5 to -89.2 0.12 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.04 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 12.6% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 7.8% 5.4% 1.3% 0.4% 2.0% 3.3% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.5% 7.6% 5.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% 5.0% 2.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.7% 4.3% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 2.5% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942026 INVEST 08/15/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942026 INVEST 08/15/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 28 32 36 41 46 50 54 58 52 52 49 53 41 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 30 34 39 44 48 52 56 50 50 47 51 39 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 31 36 41 45 49 53 47 47 44 48 36 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 24 29 34 38 42 46 40 40 37 41 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT