* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942026 08/15/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 38 43 47 52 55 58 60 63 65 69 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 38 43 47 52 55 58 60 60 62 43 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 34 35 35 36 36 37 34 40 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 4 4 3 9 12 10 14 10 16 14 17 16 20 13 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 4 5 0 3 5 0 -1 1 -2 1 -2 -2 -3 -8 SHEAR DIR 80 71 62 25 324 306 291 268 235 251 235 250 245 245 242 261 263 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.4 27.9 28.1 28.5 28.5 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.8 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 137 140 140 144 136 139 144 144 149 151 152 153 157 167 173 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 14 13 700-500 MB RH 65 62 59 58 59 55 58 54 56 53 53 46 44 42 42 41 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 68 53 46 36 23 5 -18 -37 -45 -49 -59 -73 -53 -50 -47 -48 200 MB DIV -5 -23 -35 -35 -19 4 -16 18 18 17 -5 10 -20 -6 -29 3 6 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -7 -8 -6 0 -1 -6 0 -2 -4 -1 -3 -5 -2 0 -5 LAND (KM) 1498 1357 1224 1112 1014 873 863 641 456 364 208 3 60 4 10 -3 -10 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 12.1 13.1 14.3 15.1 15.9 16.3 17.0 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.6 41.2 42.8 44.3 45.8 48.7 51.3 53.6 55.7 57.5 59.5 61.7 64.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 15 15 14 13 12 10 10 10 11 12 12 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 20 22 22 33 25 33 38 44 49 48 55 0 12 17 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 6. 13. 20. 27. 33. 39. 42. 45. 47. 48. 51. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. 38. 40. 44. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 39.6 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942026 INVEST 08/15/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 2.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 30.0 to 152.9 0.68 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -40.4 -4.5 to -89.2 0.42 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 14.5% 9.8% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 20.4% 15.1% 6.1% 3.2% 11.4% 11.5% 17.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 12.0% 2.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 1.4% Consensus: 2.6% 15.6% 9.3% 5.3% 1.1% 4.1% 8.3% 6.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.3% 7.8% 4.6% 2.6% 0.5% 2.0% 4.1% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942026 INVEST 08/15/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942026 INVEST 08/15/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 33 38 43 47 52 55 58 60 60 62 43 40 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 31 36 41 45 50 53 56 58 58 60 41 38 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 32 37 41 46 49 52 54 54 56 37 34 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 25 30 34 39 42 45 47 47 49 30 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT