* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942026 08/15/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 35 40 46 50 54 58 62 65 67 71 73 76 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 35 40 46 50 54 58 62 65 67 71 73 65 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 38 39 40 41 42 45 48 53 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 9 6 4 5 9 10 11 13 11 15 10 13 14 21 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 3 0 2 3 3 1 0 -1 -1 4 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 83 70 62 65 38 314 318 286 230 251 223 264 271 285 259 282 271 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 136 138 140 140 141 135 138 143 143 147 150 152 155 157 158 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 66 67 63 61 61 58 55 57 55 56 55 51 49 44 47 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 67 65 53 48 29 15 -14 -24 -49 -42 -63 -53 -71 -30 -22 2 200 MB DIV -4 -10 -27 -39 -29 -32 8 -4 17 0 -8 -20 13 -18 -26 -4 0 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -6 -7 -7 0 -2 -1 -4 -1 -3 -2 -3 -8 -3 1 -3 LAND (KM) 1554 1493 1350 1218 1111 941 876 815 623 473 371 238 58 50 62 49 -18 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.2 11.6 12.6 13.7 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.0 39.6 41.2 42.7 44.1 47.0 49.6 51.9 53.9 55.7 57.4 59.2 61.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 14 14 14 13 12 10 9 9 10 10 11 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 19 15 17 20 22 24 32 27 32 38 43 50 48 47 57 69 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 27. 34. 39. 43. 45. 47. 49. 52. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -10. -12. -15. -16. -17. -19. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 29. 33. 37. 40. 42. 46. 48. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 38.0 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942026 INVEST 08/15/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.74 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 30.0 to 152.9 0.68 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -29.8 -4.5 to -89.2 0.30 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.04 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 13.9% 9.6% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 20.5% 15.7% 6.3% 3.4% 15.6% 11.2% 18.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 6.5% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% Consensus: 2.2% 13.6% 9.1% 5.2% 1.2% 5.4% 8.4% 6.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.1% 7.3% 4.5% 2.6% 0.6% 2.7% 4.2% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942026 INVEST 08/15/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942026 INVEST 08/15/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 30 35 40 46 50 54 58 62 65 67 71 73 65 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 33 38 44 48 52 56 60 63 65 69 71 63 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 29 34 40 44 48 52 56 59 61 65 67 59 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 21 26 32 36 40 44 48 51 53 57 59 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT