* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942026 08/14/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 31 37 44 50 55 57 59 62 63 65 65 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 31 37 44 50 55 57 59 62 63 65 65 68 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 34 38 41 42 42 41 40 41 42 45 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 11 9 6 4 8 11 11 16 14 16 12 15 16 24 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -1 -1 2 -1 2 4 1 0 0 0 3 2 -7 -2 SHEAR DIR 72 74 65 51 56 7 334 284 251 238 236 239 267 269 295 293 310 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.7 28.0 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 140 139 139 141 138 138 133 136 143 145 147 150 153 155 156 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 13 700-500 MB RH 67 69 68 65 62 60 54 55 53 55 50 50 44 43 40 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 13 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 62 58 58 51 38 20 -5 -32 -47 -64 -59 -65 -51 -45 -23 -13 200 MB DIV -6 -2 -14 -14 -32 -21 22 12 16 -14 -8 -19 31 -6 -33 -26 11 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -8 -6 -7 -5 -3 -4 -5 -4 -2 -3 -2 -3 -6 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1571 1525 1503 1367 1244 1050 956 943 850 709 575 446 300 96 55 83 81 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.7 11.1 12.1 13.3 14.7 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.3 37.8 39.3 40.7 42.1 44.8 47.4 49.7 51.7 53.3 54.9 56.7 58.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 13 14 13 13 10 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 14 17 19 24 25 33 26 31 38 40 45 49 50 59 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 28. 34. 39. 43. 45. 47. 49. 52. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 32. 34. 37. 38. 40. 40. 43. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 36.3 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942026 INVEST 08/14/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.69 2.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 30.0 to 152.9 0.70 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -20.4 -4.5 to -89.2 0.19 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.07 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 12.5% 8.8% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 13.5% 9.2% 2.5% 1.2% 6.6% 9.7% 13.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% Consensus: 1.6% 9.5% 6.2% 3.6% 0.4% 2.3% 7.6% 4.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.3% 5.2% 3.1% 1.8% 0.2% 1.1% 3.8% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942026 INVEST 08/14/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942026 INVEST 08/14/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 30 31 37 44 50 55 57 59 62 63 65 65 68 70 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 29 35 42 48 53 55 57 60 61 63 63 66 68 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 25 31 38 44 49 51 53 56 57 59 59 62 64 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 22 29 35 40 42 44 47 48 50 50 53 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT