* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942026 08/14/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 45 51 58 61 65 66 66 68 66 70 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 45 51 58 61 65 66 66 68 66 70 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 42 45 46 46 44 43 43 44 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 13 9 8 5 2 6 8 9 14 18 14 13 17 19 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 1 1 3 4 3 6 3 0 3 2 5 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 73 75 84 77 50 9 335 295 289 228 231 221 256 251 280 269 297 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.3 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.1 27.7 27.7 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 141 143 137 138 137 139 133 132 138 143 145 146 150 151 153 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 69 66 61 59 55 56 53 53 52 47 46 41 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 12 12 10 11 9 10 8 7 6 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 57 57 65 61 61 50 35 11 -15 -35 -52 -60 -65 -49 -61 -33 -39 200 MB DIV -18 -9 -2 -18 -26 -39 -3 19 22 20 -14 -22 -9 -11 -16 -37 -17 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -7 -6 -6 -7 -5 -4 -2 -6 -1 -3 -2 -3 -7 -1 -6 LAND (KM) 1643 1586 1548 1512 1425 1201 1047 972 969 811 683 575 470 336 124 14 46 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.8 11.1 11.8 12.9 14.1 15.2 15.8 16.2 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.3 35.8 37.2 38.7 40.2 42.9 45.7 48.3 50.5 52.2 53.7 55.1 56.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 13 14 14 11 8 8 7 8 9 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 19 20 17 21 21 31 24 30 35 36 39 43 45 32 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 21. 28. 34. 39. 43. 45. 47. 48. 51. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 1. -3. -3. -6. -6. -9. -12. -13. -15. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 20. 26. 33. 36. 40. 41. 41. 43. 41. 45. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 34.3 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942026 INVEST 08/14/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 2.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 30.0 to 152.9 0.70 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -14.6 -4.5 to -89.2 0.12 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.07 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.2% 11.6% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 8.4% 5.8% 1.5% 0.6% 3.6% 4.6% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 1.2% 7.2% 4.9% 0.5% 0.2% 1.3% 5.5% 1.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% SDCON: 0.6% 4.6% 2.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 2.7% 5.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942026 INVEST 08/14/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 36 45 51 58 61 65 66 66 68 66 70 69 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 34 43 49 56 59 63 64 64 66 64 68 67 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 39 45 52 55 59 60 60 62 60 64 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 31 37 44 47 51 52 52 54 52 56 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT