* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942026 08/14/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 29 32 39 46 52 58 66 70 73 72 72 72 72 74 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 29 32 39 46 52 58 66 70 73 72 72 72 72 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 39 44 50 56 59 59 57 56 55 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 15 14 12 11 7 7 3 2 8 14 17 14 18 16 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -3 0 -2 3 4 5 4 2 2 2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 76 78 76 77 58 33 350 354 265 213 216 203 224 257 260 280 284 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 141 144 142 143 143 140 139 134 133 134 140 143 144 146 151 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 68 69 69 70 70 65 65 58 57 53 55 51 50 44 45 41 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 11 10 11 10 10 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 49 56 53 63 62 59 45 21 -1 -25 -41 -53 -47 -49 -39 -33 -35 200 MB DIV -11 -15 -19 -17 -17 -24 -14 15 26 37 18 -12 -11 8 -10 -13 -19 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -8 -6 -6 -6 -7 -5 -3 -4 -3 -1 -3 -2 -5 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1693 1618 1547 1492 1452 1259 1059 979 953 1004 897 766 634 487 379 192 8 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.2 10.2 10.4 11.4 12.7 14.0 14.9 15.4 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.2 34.9 36.4 37.8 39.1 41.6 44.0 46.2 48.3 50.0 51.3 52.7 54.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 9 7 6 8 9 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 17 20 16 20 25 24 30 26 29 33 37 40 42 45 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 22. 29. 36. 41. 44. 46. 48. 50. 53. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -6. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 14. 21. 27. 33. 41. 45. 48. 47. 47. 47. 47. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 33.2 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942026 INVEST 08/14/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.62 2.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 30.0 to 152.9 0.71 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -7.0 -4.5 to -89.2 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.06 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 12.1% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 8.7% 7.3% 2.6% 1.0% 3.4% 3.5% 5.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 1.4% 7.3% 5.5% 0.9% 0.3% 1.2% 5.0% 2.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% SDCON: 0.7% 4.6% 3.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 2.5% 2.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942026 INVEST 08/14/2026 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 29 32 39 46 52 58 66 70 73 72 72 72 72 74 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 31 38 45 51 57 65 69 72 71 71 71 71 73 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 41 47 53 61 65 68 67 67 67 67 69 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 32 38 44 52 56 59 58 58 58 58 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT