* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942026 08/14/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 37 42 49 52 58 60 64 63 61 61 59 61 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 37 42 49 52 58 60 64 63 61 61 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 39 45 50 53 52 49 46 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 18 19 18 16 10 10 4 4 11 16 19 20 19 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -3 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 2 0 7 7 9 6 6 7 0 SHEAR DIR 85 84 75 77 73 40 15 349 339 259 210 233 218 232 239 260 285 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.3 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 140 142 142 146 140 138 138 129 132 132 136 137 140 140 142 143 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 7 8 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 68 70 70 71 73 70 67 63 55 55 51 53 49 45 43 41 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 14 13 13 11 12 10 11 10 8 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 62 52 56 54 59 64 55 39 9 -11 -37 -42 -46 -44 -44 -43 -30 200 MB DIV -22 -12 -14 -19 -14 -18 -6 -6 18 9 39 2 -4 -11 -6 -11 -21 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -7 -6 -6 -6 -7 -8 -3 -2 -8 -1 -3 -1 -5 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 1566 1664 1577 1505 1447 1418 1299 1158 1127 1137 1105 978 861 735 639 480 286 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.8 9.9 10.4 11.3 12.8 14.4 15.7 16.5 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.3 33.0 34.4 35.7 36.9 39.2 41.3 43.6 45.8 47.9 49.5 51.0 52.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 13 12 11 11 11 13 13 12 9 8 7 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 19 19 23 16 18 21 17 28 26 35 36 33 35 34 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 22. 29. 35. 40. 44. 46. 47. 48. 51. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. -0. 0. -4. -4. -7. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 17. 24. 27. 33. 35. 39. 38. 36. 36. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 31.3 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942026 INVEST 08/14/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.57 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 30.0 to 152.9 0.72 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 4.6 -4.5 to -89.2 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.06 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 7.4% 5.6% 1.7% 0.8% 2.9% 2.2% 6.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 7.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 2.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.7% 4.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 1.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942026 INVEST 08/14/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 30 37 42 49 52 58 60 64 63 61 61 59 61 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 36 41 48 51 57 59 63 62 60 60 58 60 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 32 37 44 47 53 55 59 58 56 56 54 56 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 29 36 39 45 47 51 50 48 48 46 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT