* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942026 08/13/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 41 45 49 53 59 62 60 60 56 55 56 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 41 45 49 53 59 62 60 60 56 55 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 31 34 38 43 47 47 45 42 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 19 21 20 16 12 10 6 4 6 14 19 25 23 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 -2 0 2 -1 1 0 5 6 8 6 5 10 5 SHEAR DIR 78 81 77 79 77 45 13 352 352 249 212 224 221 222 231 239 255 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.4 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 142 140 140 143 143 132 129 126 129 131 133 138 141 142 143 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 68 69 72 70 71 73 69 67 57 57 51 54 52 53 47 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 15 15 14 12 12 13 12 10 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 56 56 53 55 52 55 55 45 21 0 -20 -30 -38 -32 -37 -34 -20 200 MB DIV -21 -15 -16 -17 -3 -17 3 -26 -6 11 29 11 8 -10 19 -6 4 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -7 -8 -6 -4 -5 -10 -8 -4 -5 -6 -1 -1 -5 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 1379 1526 1660 1585 1506 1415 1447 1381 1275 1256 1267 1201 1060 895 742 601 391 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.2 9.9 9.7 9.5 9.4 10.1 11.0 12.3 13.9 15.3 16.2 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.4 30.8 32.0 33.2 34.4 36.5 38.6 40.8 43.1 45.3 47.1 48.7 50.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 10 11 13 13 12 10 9 8 9 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 14 14 15 20 21 13 14 16 24 26 28 36 33 36 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 14. 22. 29. 36. 41. 44. 46. 47. 48. 51. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -9. -10. -13. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 16. 20. 24. 28. 34. 37. 35. 35. 31. 30. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 29.4 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942026 INVEST 08/13/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.51 1.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 30.0 to 152.9 0.70 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -10.3 -4.5 to -89.2 0.07 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.07 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 12.5% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 7.2% 5.3% 1.8% 0.9% 2.7% 2.2% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 7.0% 4.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.9% 3.6% 1.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.6% 4.5% 2.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 1.8% 1.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942026 INVEST 08/13/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 30 36 41 45 49 53 59 62 60 60 56 55 56 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 35 40 44 48 52 58 61 59 59 55 54 55 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 36 40 44 48 54 57 55 55 51 50 51 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 28 32 36 40 46 49 47 47 43 42 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT