* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922026 08/13/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 26 26 26 26 30 33 35 37 39 39 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 26 26 26 26 30 33 35 37 39 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 13 22 23 20 25 26 30 26 29 34 30 29 25 19 22 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 2 0 2 4 1 -4 -3 0 -7 -5 -3 -1 -5 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 255 265 268 270 267 251 271 265 269 286 305 293 307 296 273 274 261 SST (C) 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.7 29.0 28.8 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.7 29.4 29.3 29.6 29.7 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 149 151 147 144 149 154 151 159 154 152 149 161 159 164 166 171 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 7 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 8 11 700-500 MB RH 60 61 62 62 60 59 58 62 58 58 55 58 57 61 60 64 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 12 11 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 85 86 79 73 39 23 20 20 8 23 40 22 6 -14 -12 -54 200 MB DIV 16 6 6 -17 21 11 -25 15 8 4 3 15 6 -7 0 31 8 700-850 TADV -9 -11 -10 -4 0 -5 -3 -6 -7 -3 -3 -4 -8 3 0 -7 3 LAND (KM) 924 817 751 720 713 392 114 74 245 250 117 146 69 322 227 18 -16 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.3 13.1 14.0 14.7 15.5 16.0 16.7 17.1 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.5 48.3 49.9 51.5 52.9 55.8 58.8 61.9 65.1 68.4 71.9 74.9 78.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 15 14 15 15 16 16 17 16 14 16 16 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 25 29 35 34 31 45 51 46 70 66 71 74 102 72 59 31 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 28. 35. 40. 45. 48. 50. 52. 55. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -0. -6. -11. -18. -26. -30. -33. -36. -38. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 46.5 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922026 INVEST 08/13/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.43 1.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.79 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 30.0 to 152.9 0.75 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -24.3 -4.5 to -89.2 0.23 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.16 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 12.6% 8.7% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 4.8% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 5.9% 4.0% 3.0% 0.1% 0.3% 2.6% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 3.4% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922026 INVEST 08/13/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922026 INVEST 08/13/2026 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 26 26 26 26 30 33 35 37 39 30 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 25 25 26 25 25 25 25 29 32 34 36 38 29 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 22 23 22 22 22 22 26 29 31 33 35 26 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 15 16 15 15 15 15 19 22 24 26 28 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT