* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912026 07/19/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 37 39 39 37 32 27 27 30 31 32 33 35 36 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 37 39 39 37 32 28 28 31 33 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 38 37 33 28 26 24 23 24 25 26 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 16 18 25 33 33 29 19 20 15 18 15 16 10 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -3 0 0 2 5 2 3 2 1 7 4 5 3 2 SHEAR DIR 50 62 35 41 50 43 46 56 58 66 60 83 57 79 74 111 87 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.0 30.4 30.7 30.7 30.2 29.5 27.9 27.1 27.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 167 167 168 168 169 166 169 170 171 171 161 135 126 125 132 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 10 8 8 10 7 11 7 12 8 14 8 14 7 12 8 700-500 MB RH 56 58 58 56 59 57 54 50 46 42 40 38 35 35 36 38 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 10 11 11 10 8 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -33 -38 -48 -48 -54 -90 -68 -67 -77 -99 -91 -93 -23 2 3 31 200 MB DIV 4 14 9 -16 -19 -24 -50 -16 -28 -33 -40 -47 -16 -21 -30 4 -4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -2 0 -3 2 -13 -7 -20 -9 -6 LAND (KM) 200 192 193 185 181 163 138 72 62 9 75 129 7 -150 -307 -552 -382 LAT (DEG N) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.6 29.1 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.8 28.5 28.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.3 85.6 85.7 85.8 86.0 86.4 87.1 87.8 88.6 89.8 91.6 93.7 96.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 2 2 3 4 3 5 7 9 10 11 8 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 24 20 19 17 18 25 25 6 2 5 4 2 2 4 7 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 5. 10. 13. 15. 17. 20. 22. 23. 22. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -10. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 2. -3. -3. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.9 85.3 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912026 INVEST 07/19/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.69 2.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.77 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 30.0 to 152.9 0.67 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -16.4 -4.5 to -89.2 0.14 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 13.8% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 12.1% 6.5% 3.0% 1.4% 4.4% 4.0% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 9.1% 5.5% 1.0% 0.5% 5.1% 4.5% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.8% 5.0% 2.7% 0.5% 0.2% 2.5% 2.2% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912026 INVEST 07/19/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912026 INVEST 07/19/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 35 37 39 39 37 32 28 28 31 33 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 34 36 36 34 29 25 25 28 30 25 24 24 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 31 31 29 24 20 20 23 25 20 19 19 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 24 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT