* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912026 07/19/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 31 36 36 31 25 25 27 29 31 33 35 39 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 26 31 36 36 29 30 30 32 34 36 38 31 28 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 27 27 26 22 26 24 22 22 22 23 24 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 6 5 7 17 27 37 37 29 19 23 16 17 12 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 -1 0 2 3 5 0 1 10 1 12 2 SHEAR DIR 55 13 46 62 30 63 46 45 57 61 72 64 79 59 80 62 85 SST (C) 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.2 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.1 30.5 30.0 30.1 29.6 28.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 167 167 167 168 168 162 162 162 170 172 171 174 165 145 157 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 11 10 8 10 8 12 9 12 9 12 8 12 6 14 700-500 MB RH 53 53 57 58 58 59 56 53 48 45 43 45 45 46 46 43 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 8 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -69 -70 -61 -42 -45 -48 -54 -85 -70 -65 -53 -64 -64 -53 -39 -32 -20 200 MB DIV -8 -1 1 15 7 -21 -24 -37 -4 -22 -30 -29 -58 -25 -43 -32 -34 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 5 3 15 -4 -1 -6 -4 LAND (KM) 201 208 225 223 211 168 105 44 -8 13 100 276 338 469 150 -223 -270 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.8 29.5 29.9 29.6 28.8 27.5 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.7 84.9 85.1 85.2 85.3 85.5 85.6 85.7 85.4 85.1 85.3 86.6 89.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 6 11 15 17 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 25 25 27 28 21 9 7 8 20 34 51 11 23 12 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 4. 10. 14. 17. 20. 23. 27. 30. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 8. 4. 0. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -8. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 16. 11. 5. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 27.1 84.7 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912026 INVEST 07/19/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.90 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 30.0 to 152.9 0.82 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 1.9 -4.5 to -89.2 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 32.3% 22.0% 7.4% 3.2% 11.4% 8.4% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 11.2% 7.4% 2.5% 1.1% 3.8% 2.8% 1.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.7% 6.1% 3.7% 1.2% 0.5% 1.9% 1.4% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912026 INVEST 07/19/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912026 INVEST 07/19/2026 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 23 26 31 36 36 29 30 30 32 34 36 38 31 28 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 25 30 35 35 28 29 29 31 33 35 37 30 27 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 26 31 31 24 25 25 27 29 31 33 26 23 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT