* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912026 07/18/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 27 34 42 46 46 40 34 35 36 37 36 37 37 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 27 34 42 46 37 31 28 27 32 33 32 33 32 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 27 30 31 27 27 27 27 29 28 28 27 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 3 5 5 9 20 23 34 32 28 23 22 25 31 27 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 -4 -2 -3 -1 0 0 3 4 6 2 2 3 0 7 SHEAR DIR 85 88 58 25 48 28 46 43 44 53 54 61 58 63 62 66 47 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.8 30.2 30.8 30.6 30.2 30.1 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 164 163 157 163 169 171 172 173 174 165 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 9 9 10 8 11 7 12 9 12 9 11 8 10 8 700-500 MB RH 53 53 54 52 55 56 57 54 53 48 46 43 45 47 49 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 8 10 8 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -51 -67 -67 -52 -45 -47 -62 -83 -53 -46 -34 -36 -18 -20 -8 -18 200 MB DIV -1 0 -5 4 1 14 -20 -33 -30 -16 -30 -23 -38 -31 -37 -36 -22 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 5 11 10 4 4 -9 2 -21 LAND (KM) 148 157 170 180 194 180 102 36 -42 -62 -39 -26 73 234 411 330 329 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.6 28.1 28.8 29.4 30.1 30.6 30.3 29.6 28.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.0 84.2 84.4 84.6 84.8 85.0 85.1 85.1 85.1 84.5 83.7 83.1 83.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 4 3 4 5 8 12 15 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 23 17 17 22 21 25 9 9 6 4 4 3 3 21 67 12 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 5. 11. 15. 18. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 7. 4. -0. -3. -5. -9. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -9. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 14. 22. 26. 26. 20. 14. 15. 16. 17. 16. 17. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 26.9 84.0 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912026 INVEST 07/18/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.86 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 9999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 30.0 to 152.9 0.79 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -34.4 -4.5 to -89.2 0.35 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.13 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 35.7% 28.0% 8.7% 3.4% 19.7% 21.6% 10.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.8% 12.4% 9.4% 2.9% 1.1% 6.6% 7.2% 3.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912026 INVEST 07/18/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912026 INVEST 07/18/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 23 25 27 34 42 46 37 31 28 27 32 33 32 33 32 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 31 39 43 34 28 25 24 29 30 29 30 29 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 27 35 39 30 24 21 20 25 26 25 26 25 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT