* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902026 09/24/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 37 36 32 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 37 36 32 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 28 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 12 9 7 11 23 28 43 54 61 49 37 35 29 25 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 8 12 9 3 6 5 0 -5 -10 -1 5 8 1 1 2 -4 SHEAR DIR 277 234 242 238 228 242 233 236 244 250 270 292 291 289 296 279 288 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 26.5 25.4 23.8 21.2 22.1 24.9 26.5 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 138 138 140 138 120 109 97 83 88 105 119 127 131 132 132 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -54.9 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 3 1 2 1 3 2 5 700-500 MB RH 74 74 72 71 71 70 67 67 68 66 62 53 52 50 48 45 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 18 19 21 21 19 17 13 12 8 7 6 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 81 82 61 68 50 85 78 29 17 11 -14 5 22 54 37 30 -20 200 MB DIV 108 93 86 85 99 108 69 44 19 -17 0 -35 -12 -6 -4 -29 -5 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -9 -9 0 6 12 18 3 0 -6 -6 -7 -7 -5 -4 5 LAND (KM) 467 509 526 535 509 438 471 254 122 40 -110 -323 -468 -603 -722 -849 -920 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.1 13.4 14.0 15.7 17.9 20.3 22.4 24.0 24.6 24.8 24.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 21.1 21.8 22.1 22.3 22.2 21.5 20.7 19.4 17.9 16.0 13.8 11.2 8.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 4 5 7 10 13 13 12 11 12 11 10 8 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 14 12 11 13 2 0 0 2 9 19 23 26 27 28 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 32. 33. 33. 34. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -10. -21. -31. -36. -39. -43. -46. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -2. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. -2. -7. -11. -18. -20. -22. -24. -24. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 11. 7. -1. -11. -22. -27. -30. -32. -31. -29. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 21.1 ** 2026 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902026 INVEST 09/24/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.55 1.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 30.0 to 152.9 0.63 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -33.8 -4.5 to -89.2 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.57 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 15.1% 9.9% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 7.8% 4.0% 1.9% 0.4% 1.6% 1.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 7.8% 4.7% 3.3% 0.2% 0.6% 3.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 6.4% 2.8% 1.6% 0.1% 0.3% 1.6% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902026 INVEST 09/24/2026 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 34 37 36 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 34 33 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 29 28 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 21 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT